8 July 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports

Moderate Risk of Scattered Thunderstorms UK & Ireland 06Z-21Z

Slight Risk of Tornado Development 12Z-18Z red box

Slight Risk of Convergence Funnel Ob's yellow box

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=43844

Despite hearing thunder a decent amount of times so far this year, I haven't had a direct hit when it comes to a proper thunderstorm yet. Here's hoping tomorrow brings something for all, because everywhere in the country has the potential!

It certainly is looking very promising for most of us.I haven't seen the forecasts looking this good in a long long time.

Good luck all looking forward to your reports and pics.

You deserve a good storm Jane Louise I hope you get one overhead! It's been quiet on the far south coast too. Good luck everyone

Have had one overhead thunderstorm here this year on May 6th when I was in Egham. Ever since, the 3 occasions with thunder (including today) have been from the distance. A thunderstorm moved NEwards 5 miles to the east on June 10th from which a lot of thunder was heard but nothing actually came from it here.

As such, another overhead one would be fantastic. Certainly had the copious amounts of rain today, including 14mm in 20 minutes at 9pm this evening. Now just some electrifying needs to happen.

Good luck to those tomorrow. I hope one will come this way

Im down in Bournemouth and will be heading north this friday afternoon for my first u.k. chase. Thinking I will head to the sailsbury area and see what comes my way.

Anybody recomend any good high spots that will give me a good view as I will have no internet access to radar when I hit the road.

If anybody is chasing in the area and would like to hook up or fancys a seat in the car / share fuel cost give me a P.M.

Have to be back in Bournemouth for 5pm as picking wife up from work, unless on something good then she may well be getting the bus home

Had some good storms here near Shotton / Peterlee - had some good lightning and fantastic thunder

Actualy looks realy stormy here this morning first time in ages, sky looks like it could kick off anytime. Temps realy dropped last night, but feeling a bit humid out there this morning. May actualy be our turn today Jane <_< just a case of waiting ... again! lol :lol:

So. lets have a look at the information this morning:

Wow! A level 1 over the UK from ESTOFEX (thanks Tuschy):

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 08 Jul 2011 06:00 to Sat 09 Jul 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 07 Jul 2011 20:44

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued mainly for parts of UK for marginal hail and a few tornado events.

SYNOPSIS

Neutral tilt of a cyclonic vortex over NW Europe indicates weak net-movement during the forecast. Brisk W/SW-erly flow continues over E/CNTRL Europe as a maritime air mass spreads eastwards. Another trough over E-Europe weakens betimes with weak geopotential heights increase over the Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

... UK, Ireland and Scotland ...

Placed beneath a vertically stacked depression, daytime driven thunderstorms are forecast. Weak shear precludes organized convection, but I'd at least expect a few marginal hail events with that activity. Also, GFS indicates a fairly well organized LL depression with enhanced LL shear, especially during the evening hours ( 12 m/s LL shear, up to 200 m^2/s^2 SRH1 and low LCLs). We don't want to rule out a few tornado reports with that activity. Thunderstorms gradually decay after sunset.

UKASF:

Forecaster: Matt

Last Updated: 21:43 Thursday, 7th July 2011

Valid: 06:00 Friday, 8th July 2011 - 05:59 Saturday, 9th July 2011

Areas Affected:

Majority of the British Isles

Synopsis:

A slow moving area of low pressure both at surface and upper levels is forecast to remain dominant across the UK during the course of Friday. Frontal systems and associated troughs are forecast to affect many areas, along with various zones of PVA. The highly cyclonic environment is forecast to continue to combine with surface heating during the day on Friday to create a widespread convective situation across many parts.

Discussion:

A large area of the UK is at risk of convective activity during the day. Various forecast soundings from Scotland, Ireland, Wales and England all signal the threat of convective instability occurring with surface temperatures ranging between 14C and 17C and Td’s in the range of 8C to 10C. Diurnal heating will combine with the area of low pressure to create a completely unstable atmosphere across many areas and scattered heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are possible almost anywhere across the UK during the course of Friday.

However, of particularly concern is across parts of England and Wales. The centre of tomorrow’s low pressure is expected to be across the majority of Wales and there is forecast to be an occlusion, which is likely to act as a focal point for heavy showers, thunderstorms and perhaps more organised heavy precipitation. The latest UKMO MESO and NAE models are signalling the threat of some heavy and potentially thundery downpours developing across Wales, parts of the Midlands and up into Northern England during the day. Some large rainfall totals are possible across these areas. Forecast atmospheric soundings across these areas are signalling in excess of 600 to 700j/kg of SBCAPE and around 400 to 500j/kg of MLCAPE, with LI’s near -2. There is a general lack of DLS and LLS given close proximity to the low centre, despite 0 to 6km DLS ranging between 20KT and 25KT. Despite this lack of shear, the depth of instability which is likely to be over 25,000ft to 30,000ft and the predicted CAPE is still likely to lead to some very heavy and thundery downpours, bringing gusty winds, torrential rainfall and a threat of hail.

The other zone of interest is across parts of the Midlands, Central-Southern and South-east England. An occlusion is forecast to bring a zone of more extensive frontal cloud and PPN for a time during the morning, but solar input is then expected by late morning and into the afternoon as cloud amounts become more broken. Forecast soundings are again signalling potentially up to 500 to 600j/kg of SBCAPE across the highlighted area. However, there is a significant risk of a greater LLS and DLS due to the location of the low pressure. Forecasted 0 to 6km DLS is between 25KT and 35KT, with perhaps over 20KT to 25KT of 0-1km LLS. There is also forecast to be some helicity as well, given variations in wind direction within the lower layers of the atmosphere and perhaps 100 to 150m2/s2 of helicity. A combination of the deep instability, quite high amounts of DLS and LLS and helicity may well lead to the threat of some well organised heavy showers and thunderstorms during the late morning and into the afternoon. There is a risk of funnel clouds and perhaps an isolated tornado, particularly given low LCL heights. Some medium sized hail could occur, along with the threat of some particularly strong wind gusts.

In summary another very highly convective day for a large portion of the UK, but parts of England and Wales in particular are at risk of experiencing some noteworthy convection and thunderstorm activity.

SkyWarn and TORRO have no current forecast, but I suspect that will change through the morning (I think the NW one is coming shortly)

Just about anybody might see some convective action today with a particular threat of funnels through the middle band of the country and getting better through to the Eastern side as the day progresses?

Well I had my turn yesterday so I won't mind if I don't get anything, I had some absolutely torrential downpours which flooded the road, and there's me running up and down the town in it well if you have the weather the least

you can do is enjoy it!

What a difference 45 minutes make! Was thick dark grey cloud coverage here, now broken up with sun out. Should hopefully put wheels in motion to start things off nicely

Lots and lots of heavy rain, but as yet no thunder storms. As Michael said, there was thunder in the distance, but in my mind that doesn't count, noise wise you could have easily mistaken it for a lorry passing by, or someone putting the wheelie bins out.

Morning all,

It's all still looking good.

It's bin collection day here so it's going to be very frustrating recognisng the sound of thunder with people dragging their wheelie bins in all day lol.

Good luck all, I feel it could be a good storm day for many of us .

Good luck all, I feel it could be a good storm day for many of us .

Yeah let's get out of NSC jane!

Morning all,

It's all still looking good.

It's bin collection day here so it's going to be very frustrating recognisng the sound of thunder with people dragging their wheelie bins in all day lol.

Good luck all, I feel it could be a good storm day for many of us .

Good luck jane and the rest of you

btw Jane good luck with the blood test

Morning all,

It's all still looking good.

It's bin collection day here so it's going to be very frustrating recognisng the sound of thunder with people dragging their wheelie bins in all day lol.

Good luck all, I feel it could be a good storm day for many of us .

Those wheelie bins got me up looking out the window a couple of times last night.

Those wheelie bins got me up looking out the window a couple of times last night.

What were you doing around Jane Louise's house then?

I wonder how many of us will be left in the No Storms Club tonight....:unsure:

Thank you Stuart

All cameras at the ready, everything prepared, absolute silence at home today( So i can hear the thunder) lol.:lol:

What were you doing around Jane Louise's house then?

:lol:

The wheelie bins have started .I think it's going to be worst around 6ish. I expect there may be some false alarms so I must remain calm lol

Im down in Bournemouth and will be heading north this friday afternoon for my first u.k. chase. Thinking I will head to the sailsbury area and see what comes my way.

Anybody recomend any good high spots that will give me a good view as I will have no internet access to radar when I hit the road.

If anybody is chasing in the area and would like to hook up or fancys a seat in the car / share fuel cost give me a P.M.

Have to be back in Bournemouth for 5pm as picking wife up from work, unless on something good then she may well be getting the bus home

Lol - like to know your have your priorities right!

If I were going to Sailsbury I would head for Old Sarum. It is a high hill with 360 degree view. Head on out of Sailsbury towards Stonehenge and you should see sign posts. Free to park. Hope you get lucky!

I'm looking forward to today. Will be out chasing this afternoon, although I am thinking I could just sit and wait for the storms to come to me.

Probably more on topic for yesterdays convective thread but saw a decent storm yesterday. Got a call from the gf saying there was TL in Bradford (i was just east of Leeds) and so I raced up the A1 and met it just north of Wetherby. Chased it as far as Leeming and saw several IC flashes plus some incredible rain. For me the best storm of 2011 so far - but i'm hoping to better that roday.

I sure there still be some left in there end of the day Jane

It's bone dry around here so any rain would be welcome.I wouldn't be surprised if it remained dry and cloudy all day though.

Sky very messy around sunbury middx, but cold??? hoping i'll get a storm today, called it a duvet day from work, so it better be worth it!!!!!!