To those who bemoan the lack of better choices in presidential elections, third-party fantasies come easily at this stage in a campaign. End hyper-partisanship and Washington dysfunction: Vote Bloomberg-Petraeus in
2012!
Those dreams are even more vivid than usual this time around, and not just because polls show striking levels of discontent within both parties about politics as usual.
The most immediate practical impediment to independent and third-party bids has always been the difficulty of getting on the ballot in all 50 states, a complex process that requires substantial time, money and organization. Ross Perot managed it in 1992 and got almost 19 percent of the popular vote despite dropping out at one point; Ralph Nader was on 44 state ballots in 2000, including, fatefully, Florida, where the election was decided in George W. Bush’s favor by 537 votes.
In 2012, courtesy of a group called Americans Elect, some lucky independent candidate will have the chance to enter the race all but guaranteed nationwide ballot access. And as that fact — or threat — has begun to dawn on the Democratic and Republican establishments, it is setting off new chatter about the prospect for a high-profile unity ticket, or at least about someone emerging to play the role of national gadfly and potential spoiler for one party or the other.
“I think what is clear is they’ll be on the ballot in most of these states, and it’s going to be something we have to deal with,” Jim Messina, President Obama’s campaign manager, said of Americans Elect at a briefing this week on the White House’s re-election strategy.
So far, Americans Elect has won ballot approval in 11 states and says it is within days of completing the process in California, the biggest electoral prize. It expects to complete gathering the necessary signatures by Dec. 31 for ballot petitions in all 30 of the states that allow the process to be completed this year; it anticipates no problem meeting the requirements in the remaining states next year.
“We’re removing the barrier to entry, which is 50-state ballot access,” said Elliot Ackerman, chief operating officer of Americans Elect.
Mr. Ackerman and other backers of the group said they were not out to help or hurt one party or the other. They said this is neither an effort to torpedo Mr. Obama by siphoning away moderates and independents nor a ploy to help him by splitting the anti-Obama vote. The group has no specific agenda other than offering voters a wider choice of candidates, its backers say, and is not a third party but a nominating process.
By its own account, the group is driven by civic-minded citizens who feel that moderates and independents have been disenfranchised by the tendency of the two parties play to their bases, especially in primaries, when independents cannot vote in many states. Its practical goal, beyond ballot access, is promote the selection of a presidential ticket via an online convention in June; the ticket would have to include a Democrat and a Republican, or a member of one party and an independent.
Those who have lent their names to the effort include Will Marshall, the president of the Progressive Policy Institute, the centrist Democratic research group; Christine Todd Whitman, the former governor of New Jersey and one of a dwindling band of moderate Republicans; Mark McKinnon, the strategist who guided Mr. Bush’s message in 2000 and 2004 but backed Mr. Obama in 2008 and now says his interest is “anything that disrupts the current system,” and Doug Schoen, a pollster who worked for Bill Clinton in the 1990s but is now frequently critical of Democrats.
“This is an effort to empower people,” said Ms. Whitman. “This ticket could win, but at the least it could drive both parties toward the center.”
But to some members of both parties, Americans Elect is a shadowy cabal financed by hedge fund money and undisclosed donors who could have a secret agenda to tilt the election one way or the other.
While some of the big initial backers, including Mr. Ackerman’s father, Peter Ackerman, a wealthy investor, have publicly acknowledged their contributions to the initial $35 million budget, others have not. And while the selection of a ticket will play out transparently via the online convention, the process also includes a provision for a committee to screen candidates who do not have traditional credentials in politics, business, the military and other fields, leading to accusations of potential skulduggery.
“It’s kind of like uberdemocracy meets back-room bosses,” said David Axelrod, Mr. Obama’s campaign strategist.
Among Republicans, the feeling that Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney would both be flawed candidates against Mr. Obama has led to another round of speculation about a late-entering candidate or a third-party bid. But even as they begin to pay more attention to Americans Elect, leaders in both parties are playing down the idea of a third-party candidacy.
“I don’t expect a third-party campaign or candidacy in this election,” Mr. Romney said in an interview with The New York Times on Wednesday. “There is such a feeling that President Obama has to be removed from the White House and we have to have someone who believes in American principles there again, that we’ll come together.”
Of course, Americans Elect could be wholly successful in creating the opportunity for a new, centrist ticket to emerge but still run into the difficult reality of convincing candidates of real stature and appeal to step forward and run against an incumbent Democratic president and the full force of a highly motivated Republican Party.
Officials of the group say quiet outreach has begun to some potential candidates, and the names of some usual suspects are popping up. They start with Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York, and Jon M. Huntsman Jr., the Utah Republican, should his bid for his party’s nomination fail. But the only candidate to declare a public interest so far is Buddy Roemer, a former governor of Louisiana whose effort to start a bid for the Republican nomination has faltered.
So while the process to enable creation of a centrist ticket is very real, the ticket itself remains very much in the dream stage.