Despite officials’ high hopes for the Carlisle Circulator demonstration project, the bus routes never took hold in the community.
There is some disagreement over what led to the low ridership levels, but, ultimately, that lack of support led to the loss of funding and an end to the project.
Capital Area Transit officials announced last week that the circulator program would end on April 28 due to a failure to meet performance standards.
The move followed a January meeting of the Carlisle Circulator Project Stakeholder Committee at which the stakeholders agreed to end local funding. Stakeholders in the project, coordinated by Cumberland County, included Carlisle Borough, Middlesex Township, Dickinson College, South Middleton Township, Partnership for Better Health, Carlisle Regional Medical Center and Carlisle Events.
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An analysis of the project available on the CAT website shows that ridership on the circulator peaked in September 2015 with 2,525 passengers per month, and fluctuated in the following months with ridership in December 2016 listed at 1,806 passengers.
The partners in the project had hoped to see eight passengers use the circulator per hour, but the actual numbers came in closer to four riders per hour.
In response to the announcement, Cumberland County commissioners issued a press release in which they expressed disappointment that the project failed to meet expectations, but called prospect of continuing the service “an entirely unrealistic expense.”
The circulator not only failed to meet ridership goals, but also failed to meet goals related to fares collected and operating costs per passenger. The only goal it met concerned expenses related to keeping the circulator in operation during any given hour.
But, according to the commissioners, even that goal was met only because CAT bus drivers agreed to reduce their hourly rate from $28 per hour to $14.55 during the pilot period.
Pennsylvania prohibits using state public transit operating funds to continue funding for pilot projects that fail to meet performance measures during the pilot period. County Commissioner Jim Hertzler said that means county and municipal taxpayers would have had to foot the entire bill for the circulator had it continued.
“This would be a huge cost for county and municipal taxpayers,” Hertzler said.
The pilot project started with an annual cost of $364,000 with local entities contributing $28,000 of that amount. Commissioners said that, after the pilot project ended, costs were estimated to reach $450,000 per year.
High costs combined with early reports of low ridership raised red flags for Rep. Stephen Bloom, who said he was troubled at seeing the empty bus drive around town all day.
“The circulator project was an unwise use of taxpayer dollars from the start, especially when we so desperately needed those dollars to fix highways and bridges in our community,” Bloom said.
He added that he was relieved the demonstration project is ending, but that “it’s sad that the wasted expenses couldn’t have been used on lifesaving safety improvements for I-81 or repairing closed bridges instead.”
CAT officials cited four contributing factors to the low ridership numbers in their analysis.
The first factor is an “auto-centric” environment in Carlisle in which walking and driving have emerged as the primary forms of transportation. Drivers needed an incentive beyond availability of public transit to use the circulator over using their private cars, according to the analysis.
Related to the first factor, the analysis says inexpensive parking downtown makes it cheaper to drive and park than to purchase a round-trip fare on the circulator to go downtown.
Mayor Tim Scott said arguments could be made both ways on whether the cost of downtown parking played a role in reducing ridership numbers. What is apparent, however, is that the ridership projections did not materialize, particularly among college students and warehouse workers.
“However, I’m happy that the borough and our partners participated in the demonstration project,” Scott said. “We now know that Carlisle is not ready for a bus system at this point in time, but, perhaps down the road in the future, we might visit it again given the right set of circumstances.”
CAT’s analysis included two factors directly related to Dickinson College. The analysis indicates the college has no restrictions on personal vehicles on campus, which “effectively means the entire student population can use a personal vehicle to drive to any destination within Carlisle Borough.”
However, Dickinson College spokesperson Christine Baksi said the college does have restrictions on student vehicles. First-year students are not permitted to park or operate vehicles on campus unless there are extenuating circumstances. Plus, only a quarter of the student population has a car on campus.
The analysis also cited shuttle services offered by Dickinson College as a direct competitor to the circulator route, presuming that students would have used the circulator had the ride share services been scaled back.
Baksi said the college had offered shuttles and Zip Cars for transportation even before the launch of the circulator project.
“They match the college student lifestyle in terms of reliability, convenience and hours of operation,” she said.
Dickinson College’s Student Senate supported the project financially by committing $14,000 annually to the local funding of the operation, Baksi said. The college also promoted and encouraged usage. In the end, though, there may be a simpler reason for the students’ lack of interest in using the circulator.
“It’s important to note that downtown Carlisle is very walkable and bike-friendly, and many students simply prefer those free and sustainable ways to get around,” Baksi said.
Carlisle Events, which also contributed to the pilot project, found the timing of the routes wasn’t compatible with the car show schedules.
“With our unusual schedule for the car shows, the bus did not get much ridership from us. During the concept of the bus plan, we thought it would get more use but learned otherwise as it rolled out,” said Bill Miller of Carlisle Events.
County commissioners said the Central Pennsylvania Transportation Authority will attend a CAT-sponsored meeting planned for March 30 at a location to be announced in the borough. The time of the meeting has yet to be announced, but CPTA will be there to assist riders in finding new transportation options.
CPTA is the shared-ride transportation provider for a 10-county area including Cumberland, Perry, Franklin, Adams and York counties. Senior citizens, people with disabilities, medical assistance trips and clients of mental health and intellectual developmental disabilities agencies are eligible to use shared ride transportation at reduced or no cost.
The circulator termination will have no impact on the regular CAT Harrisburg to Carlisle service, nor on the warehouse employee service from Dauphin County to the warehouses on Allen Road in Carlisle.