A cat and mouse encounter beckons at the Aviva Stadium onSunday, but who will play the feline role? Ireland have developed into arch-pragmatists under Joe Schmidt, for whom rugby is the art of the possible, but despite a nine-match winning run and home advantage, they look the team who will need to climb a level.
England have become tactically smarter, as they showed in the opening round in Cardiff when they overcame an eight-point deficit at the interval to win comfortably and then against Italy when they confounded a side more comfortable in defence than in possession with the unexpected. Sunday will be a battle of wits as well as hits and Ireland have yet to beat England in the Stuart Lancaster era.
Much has been made of the choke tackle perfected by both sides, but the kicking duel will have more of an effect on the outcome with neither side likely to run much in their own half unless the game needs chasing. In Jonathan Sexton, Ireland have a masterful tactician and while Lancaster has opted for a back three who all have experience of playing at full-back and will not be unnerved under the high ball, Ireland have chasers with a background in Gaelic football who are adept at winning the ball in the air.
Alex Goode returns at full-back for England for his first start in two years with Mike Brown still feeling the effects of the concussion he suffered against Italy, but Lancaster believes that, in one sense, the enforced change will benefit his side. “Being an outside-half, Alex understands where a 10 is going to put the ball,” says England’s head coach. “If the ball goes in the air, I am sure he will be in the right position to catch it. He is very astute.”
England will need to be at their most astute to preserve their unbeaten record against Ireland under Lancaster and take a significant step to their first Six Nations title since 2011. Ireland have minimised risk under Schmidt since his arrival from Leinster in the summer of 2013, with offloading a rarity and they have become difficult to break down. In seven Six Nations matches under the Kiwi, they have conceded 63 points, an average of nine, and five tries with only France last year managing more than one in a match.
“Everyone is focusing on one area, kicking, when there are two others where Ireland are probably more dangerous,” says Lancaster. “One is their powerful maul and the other is the scripted play, like the one that caught us out in the game last year [when Rob Kearney scored from a lineout].”
Lancaster is not one who uses the media to unsettle opponents, but the sub-text of his observation is that Ireland are prescriptive rather than reactive: only against France last year have Ireland won from a losing position in the Six Nations under Schmidt. They are more comfortable defending a lead than chasing a game.
“I am sure Joe will look at our defensive system as we have examined theirs and tried to work on two or three special players, let’s call them, to break us down,” says Lancaster. “It was the same as we did against Italy. Both sides will have one or two things up their sleeves, but we have got a slightly different defensive structure and philosophy to Ireland.”
It may be billed as a championship decider but England, even though they play their final two matches at Twickenham against Scotland and France, neither side having finished in the top half of the table since the last World Cup, do not see it that way, not least because they have been pipped on points difference in the past two years by Wales and Ireland. “It is clearly a big game, but will it make us champions? No,” says the centre Luther Burrell. “Not many teams win in Dublin and we are going to have to be at the top of our game. Winning in Cardiff gave us confidence, but we are conscious that we have made a slow start in both our matches this year and we cannot allow that to happen against Ireland who are tough to stop if they get on the front foot. We have the leaders in the group to get it right from the start.”
Burrell has played at inside-centre this Six Nations, his position at Northampton, having been used at 13 last year and he has almost gone unnoticed with his midfield partner, Jonathan Joseph, hogging the attention.
“JJ is a great player to watch and it is about putting him in space,” says Burrell. “As a pairing we are cohesive and understand each other’s roles. He has taken the spotlight off me and I do not mind that at all. My job at 6ft 3in and 17st is about getting over the gainline and setting off some fireworks with JJ. We know we are going to be up against it, but we are quietly confident.”