1 (edited by m610 2014-10-01 12:11 PM)

Topic: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

I used to do science stuff. I guess it's still in my blood. Last week and especially last weekend when I should have been working on the race car and tow vehicle I instead started poking around in the MyLaps data from the Vodden race. Then I poked a little more, then jotted down some notes, even uploaded some graphs to Facebook, and hoped that would be the end of it. Then on Saturday I gave in an wrote another paper for the Journal d'Lemons.

Now it's your chance to nerd out.

Paper: JOLv8n2.pdf
QP Spreadsheet: Vodden-2014.qpw
Excel Spreadsheet: Vodden-2014-09.xls

The charts in the Excel spreadsheet will be messed up. Fix them if you want. I work in Quattro Pro and the xls file is an export.

A quick summary:
https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/s851x315/10696210_965484550132369_4954199640814878157_n.jpg?oh=20bf027b857b41bb882844cd4fdb6b2d&oe=54C58C4C&__gda__=1422881916_fceaddea865cd349ec64e946f3719119
The paper will be out soon,but I thought you might like to preview some of the results of the analysis of the Vodden 2014 race. Here you see how many laps teams completed. Notice the break in the trend at around p130. Notice our car just past p160. [sigh]

https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/s851x315/1925155_965484573465700_4969508614187753570_n.jpg?oh=e13b83e189ea930da4e7b6bab00cb509&oe=54B69003&__gda__=1422540932_62fc27f8b1410b09cf1a22291c9477c8
Here's the same graph but showing the cars by class. Class A covers the whole range and dominates the top and bottom positions. There is a suspicious class C car in the top 10 while most C class cars are much farther back, but in general, the classes spread themselves out pretty evenly.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/s851x315/10410733_967660433248114_664525373831282061_n.jpg?oh=8ae5143d3a7bd2d806561fdd5dceb3ba&oe=5487226C&__gda__=1422818747_18c7cdf01dcf833c36cd743afc7f0cdc
So how fast was everyone? Here's the distribution. The mode is a 4:22 (252 sec), and there is an outlier at just past 6 minutes. Statistically speaking, that outlier, PeugeotDaddy, is statistically impossible, being over 5-sigma from the mean. I expect they'll be proud of that.

https://scontent-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/s851x315/10153242_967659026581588_3606952719553408239_n.jpg?oh=815f6f907de915ed08716ff41714940e&oe=54B3F303
Of course, you'll want to see the class breakdown. Class A owns the quick laps territory, with B just behind A and C just behind B. In terms of lap times, the classing of cars is spot on.

https://scontent-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/s851x315/10641074_967658929914931_6833427261971427136_n.jpg?oh=9fabf2e94e9fcd05d68da57d5d4eb127&oe=54B6EE4D
Speed isn't everything. You need to stay out on track turning laps. Here's the eRTOT, estimated relative time on track, roughly the percentage of time a car is out turning laps. It looks like you need an eRTOT of greater that 80% to even think about winning overall. Note that the actual RTOT is typically 10% higher than the quick and dirty estimated value.

https://scontent-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/s851x315/10342416_965790063435151_2812932669965536457_n.jpg?oh=6eebc095f1e46344744ef2df9a0bddb1&oe=54BDC4C3
Here is a measure of success, the Index of Doing Something Right (IoDSR). Basically, it shows who did better or worse than expected, assuming the fastest car should finish first, the second fastest second, the slowest last, etc.

Trekkor is going to have a tough time convincing the judges he has a B Class car. In terms of lap times he's got a 147th place car. In terms of finishing position, a 10th place car. The difference, execution, shown here by a IoDSR of over 1400%!

Skipping to the end...
https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/s851x315/10672302_967658893248268_2837979740665918582_n.jpg?oh=8195f7434f3e9d50119a0024f0e8b788&oe=54B6711E&__gda__=1422310190_9b0cecb35f08c9cbc688df51e56449e0
Let see how this works out in terms of class. Wow, it looks like C Class does a better job of finishing these races than A or B, relative to the size of each class. C Class must be composed of a bunch of turtles, A with hares, and B with, I don't know, Toyotas?

The rest are on the team's facebook page under photos/albums/Vodden The Hell Are We Doing? 2014



Edit - I updated the images here. Sorry about the mistake mixing up the classing of some cars. Apparently I had sorted on team name once when I should have sorted on car number. Three multi-car teams registered under the same name. The corrections are now in the paper and it and the corrected spreadsheets have been uploaded.

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

bravo good sir.. just what I was wondering.

DNF Racing 1992 Mazda Miata
"Cheat to win"

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

Fantastic read. I wish I'd thought to do something like this for my Mathematics Senior Project last year.

I'm proud of our last race. Our Class C car(which competed in Class B thanks an accidental win) has an eRTOT of 75% and an IoDSR of 190%.

Planet Express
"IOE" "C Win" 4834.701 Race Miles and counting
Toyocedes
"Least Southern Pickup Truck" "IOE" "C win" "C win (again?)"

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

Nice analysis!  I used MyLaps and OpenOffice to look at best lap speed and total laps completed from CMP to see where we stand in Class B (We're slow), but I'm going to download this sheet tonight when I get home.

CMP Fall 2014 Lap Analysis

Formula None
Because Saab Turbos have too much power
Inexplicably OC @ Humidi TT 2014

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

Now do what all good corporate tools do with statics, skew them to your advantage with creatively edited disclaimers that throw out results which would be detrimental to your cause.  Or even better, do it so that a Saturn SC2 has no choice but to be classed as a class C car in the future because I think it is the only way my team will ever be rolling in nickels!

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

I'm not trying to end up in C, but I wouldn't mind being able to slap on a turbo without getting bumped to A.

Formula None
Because Saab Turbos have too much power
Inexplicably OC @ Humidi TT 2014

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

OnkelUdo wrote:

Now do what all good corporate tools do with statics, skew them to your advantage with creatively edited disclaimers that throw out results which would be detrimental to your cause.  Or even better, do it so that a Saturn SC2 has no choice but to be classed as a class C car in the future because I think it is the only way my team will ever be rolling in nickels!

I seriously considered doing that in the part where I discuss the times lost to penalties, etc. Like, optimal lap times in terms fuel range and significantly reduced chances of getting BF'ed, would be just a bit below ours. Also contrary to popular opinion, making a good, strong, and I mean really strong, first impression on the judges when you report in for your BF will get you through that quickly and they'll remember you and will send you on your way immediate for your 2, 3,and 4th BF. Also, there is an unwritten rule in Lemons that hitting a yellow car will get you kicked out of the race. Stuff like that.

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

My teammate and I have opened up a new can of worms. This is going to get ugly.

In the eRTOT we decided to us the average lap time instead of using the best lap time. It's going to be interesting comparing our different races.

Planet Express
"IOE" "C Win" 4834.701 Race Miles and counting
Toyocedes
"Least Southern Pickup Truck" "IOE" "C win" "C win (again?)"

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

m610 wrote:
OnkelUdo wrote:

Now do what all good corporate tools do with statics, skew them to your advantage with creatively edited disclaimers that throw out results which would be detrimental to your cause.  Or even better, do it so that a Saturn SC2 has no choice but to be classed as a class C car in the future because I think it is the only way my team will ever be rolling in nickels!

I seriously considered doing that in the part where I discuss the times lost to penalties, etc. Like, optimal lap times in terms fuel range and significantly reduced chances of getting BF'ed, would be just a bit below ours. Also contrary to popular opinion, making a good, strong, and I mean really strong, first impression on the judges when you report in for your BF will get you through that quickly and they'll remember you and will send you on your way immediate for your 2, 3,and 4th BF. Also, there is an unwritten rule in Lemons that hitting a yellow car will get you kicked out of the race. Stuff like that.

FYI..I was that corporate tool.  That is until the sales for a specific tool (no pun intended...really it was a tool company) indicated we were loosing money on the tool AND the consumables to the tune of a about -3% gross margin.  Project manager wanted me to "throw out" results from any company other than those from "Mega" accounts because that was what his bonus program had targeting.  They made up 12% of sales...and even then had a GM of only 4%.

I love statistics now that I do not have to personally produce them...but only analyse other folks stat's.

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

"There really is a dino-chicken."

"Real ZomBees prefer Bacon"
IOE(x2) MGB/SAAB 96, Judge's Choice, Class C Win, & 2011 Hooniverse Car of the Year!
MRolla, Stick Figure/Animal House, Free Range MR2, SAAB Sonett, "The Death Flip"
2008 Exoskeleton Jag Fiasco, Concours d Lemons - Rue Britannia, worse British car.

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

Sparky Pete wrote:

"There really is a dino-chicken."

It was relevant.

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

Did that 911TDI really end up in the top ten? If I recall they were only a lap ahead of us (#80 Billy Beer 2nd in C/39th? overall) But the results don't seem to be posted yet that I can find.

Constructor/Owner/Driver - Billy Beer Ford Futura

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

It looks like I mixed up the Hella Shitty cars somehow. A full review of the results is underway.

#911 was a C class car and finished 33rd
#6 was an A class car and finished 9th
#5 was a A class car and finished 91st.

Link to the MyLaps data: http://www.mylaps.com/en/classification/3271935

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

It looks like what I did at some point was sort by team name when I should have sorted by car number. About 8 cars, ones that had the same names (Hella Shitty, Pit Crew Revenge, DemBones),  got miss-classed in my analysis and it won't change the results much at all, but that C class car will disappear from the top 10. Tomorrow I will fix everything.

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

I'm the guy who runs the #6 car team.  Would that explain why we were pretty far off the graph for our total time on track?  I thought that was a little weird.

Re: Journal d'Lemons, vol.8, no.2, (2014)

The updates are up.

Sorry about the mistake, and thanks for catching it. That C class car in the top 10 did look pretty suspicious.

I updated the images in the lead post and the paper and spreadsheet have been uploaded. Same link as before.

Also, in the paper, a slight reinterpretation of the eRTOT results.

"JOL v8, n2 wrote:

Winning: While it is already clear that a A class car will win these races it can still be useful to look at how they win. The eRTOT date in figure 10 shows that all classes follow the same trend, but A class has the edge when it comes to the time they were out on track. Interestingly, C class as a whole shows how important the eRTOT is. Most of the green data points in figure 10 fall along the upper edge of the band and with several points well above the main body of data. What that means is the cars that finished in similar positions were faster, but by staying out on track the C class car essentially caught them, passing them while they were in the pits. This point bears repeating. The  majority of the slower class C cars were passing us while we were screwing around in the pits.

Note that what was just said about the C class cars appears to be true of the B class cars. Their eRTOT for a given position tends to be higher than that for the A class cars. This topic will be looked at in more detail in an upcoming paper.