We still have mild weather for the next few days but it's time to take a closer look at the next storm that moves in on Sunday.

There is moisture streaming into the West Coast to our North on Thursday and Saturday but it looks like we should stay mainly dry with just some clouds.  Winds should pick up on Saturday ahead of the next storm.

The timing of the arrival of the next storm has sped up to Sunday.  The mild air and moisture moving into the West Coast to our North Saturday will be pushed South into the area as early as Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Snow levels start very high but by Sunday morning they could be down near 8,000 feet as the heavier precip pushes into the area.

The timing of the snow levels falling will be critical to snowfall accumulations.  The GFS model has the heaviest precipitation falling Sunday and the European model Sunday night.  The snow levels look like they could quickly crash below lake level sometime Sunday evening.  So we will have to watch the snow levels closely, but unlike the last storm this cold air is moving in quickly as the strong cold front pushes through.

Here is a look at the total precip forecast on the GFS model

and the European model...

They both max out precip around 1.5 inches West of the lake along the crest.  Accounting for snow levels here is the initial forecast for the storm.

It looks like a quick hitting 24 hour storm that could drop up to a foot on the upper mountains.  The other good news will be the colder air moving in Sunday night through Tuesday night that should make for good snowmaking behind the storm.

It looks like we clear out Monday with high pressure beginning to build back in on Tuesday, with dry weather and warming trend the rest of the week.

High pressure is back over the West next week and we are watching for a pattern change going into December. 

The forecast models have been all over the place with the placement of the ridge in the Northeast Pacific which will affect the pattern.  The overall pattern seems to want to at least briefly push a trough into the West Coast the first week of the month.

Looking at the latest GFS ensemble mean run it has an interesting scenario of a strong blocking ridge over Alaska and the jet stream breaking underneath into the West Coast.

Whatever happens it looks interesting right now.  It does look like a change in the pattern will occur and hopefully one that will bring in some colder storms going into December.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. If you are traveling Sunday over the passes I would do in in the morning as snow levels are falling Sunday afternoon into the evening.  I'll  be one of you as we are packing the car and getting ready to head to the in-laws house in Northern CA.

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