The Profiling Project Seth Rich Report

The Profiling Project: Seth Rich Homicide - Initial Findings June 20, 2017
On Sunday July 10, 2016, at approximately 4:19 am, Mr. SETH CONRAD RICH was shot and
killed in the 2100 block of Flagler Place NW. 1 Seth Rich was the 36th of 66 unsolved homicides 2
and one of 135 total homicides in Washington D.C. in 2016.
The Profiling Project:

Seth Rich Homicide
Initial Findings
June 20, 2017
1
MPDC Public Bulletin No. 2016-HOM-071016A (https://mpdc.dc.gov/node/1179876)
2
https://mpdc.dc.gov/node/1133867
To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

For Media: media@thepublicityagency.com
Executive Summary
Who The Profiling Project is An all-volunteer group of current and former George Washington
University forensic psychology graduate students and instructors.
Why we came together To aid the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Police (MPD) utilizing
forensic psychology skills and tools in hopes of providing at least one actionable item to MPD
What we found After a three-month review and investigation into the death of Seth Rich, The
Profiling Project notes the following:
1. Seths death does not appear to be a random homicide

2. Seths death does not appear to be a robbery gone bad
3. Seth death was more likely committed by a hired killer or serial murderer
4. There may be additional video surveillance of the crime and crime scene
5. The resolution of prosecuting the individual(s) responsible appears to be
hindered both actively and passively
6. Seths killer(s) most likely remains free within the community
This report is broken down into the following sections:
1. Project Recap
2. Definitions
3. Profile of Seth Rich
4. Victimology
5. Questions We Asked
6. Neighborhood Canvas Conducted on May 4, 2017
7. Discussion, Considerations and Additional Research Needed
8. References
Law Enforcement Sensitive

We understand that certain information and evidence needs to remain confidential to ensure the
integrity of the criminal process, as such, certain parts of this report shed insight into the
investigative process, so we have deemed certain parts LES.
Sensitive Information Releasable Only With Author Permission

We understand that this report involves real people. To protect persons rights and dignity, as well
as to not subject any parties to re-victimization, certain portions of this report are not to be publicly
released without permission from the author. These sections are identified as Sensitive
Information Releasable Only With Author Permission.
The Profiling Project reserves right to amend this report if presented with new information.

Section 1 - Project Recap
The phrase cold-case has no set definition, but rather is defined by respective police
departments and is usually based on the assignment of resources from a police department (Smythe,
2009). We define a homicide case as cold if after 72 hours of report the case does not have a
suspect identified.
The bulk of cold-case homicides are not solved because a new piece of tangible evidence
becomes available, like finding the murder weapon or a new latent fingerprint, but rather because
someone comes forward with new information tying someone to the murder (Canter & Youngs,
2009).
The Profiling Project (PP) became involved with the Seth Rich homicide after reading the
Washingtonian story DC Lobbyist Will Hire Actors to Reenact Seth Richs Murder 3 which ran
March 2, 2017. The Profiling Project offered to provide a volunteer and autonomous team of
professionals and graduate students to review the case, offer insight, and with an ultimate goal of
providing the Washington, D.C. Police Department (MPD) with one, new, actionable piece of
information.
On May 8, 2017 PP accomplished its goal by locating an additional security camera at the
Flagler Market which was observed on May 4, 2017 to have a clear view of the intersection of W
St. NW and Flagler Place NW.
Our Process
After communicating our intent with MPD and ensuring no conflicts, PP established our
governing principles, which were deemed our SixCs (Appendix A). With these principles, we
endeavored to learn all we could about Seth and the events around his homicide through publicly
available information.
The goal of PP was to create as strong a profile of Seth Rich as possible. That profile
would then be compared to the various profiles of the theories surrounding Seths death. PP
understood that the bulk of our information would be second and third-hand accounts, reportings
and statements. To assess validity of such information, PP established a weighted tool (Appendix
B) to give value to the credibility, reliability and validity of the statements and information
reviewed. We conducted statement validity assessments for any statements or information we
were presented (See Appendix C for example).
PP was given no special access to any materials, evidence or persons and due to case
sensitivity, conducted only informal, limited interviews. The bulk of our report is based on
statistics, prior research and Logos.
Data was retrieved from DC Police Crime Mapping interface 4. The website allows the
public to query historical and current data from the Metropolitan Police Department (MPDC)
database for reported crime statistics. The team downloaded the data from all seven police
districts, using the time parameters of 1/1/2012 - 4/6/17.
All data were downloaded into Excel spreadsheets, merged into one file, and then exported
into a statistical analysis software system, SPSS, for more thorough analyses. Data was organized
by date of offense, type of offense, and police district.
3
https://www.washingtonian.com/2017/03/02/dc-lobbyist-will-hire-actors-to-reenact-seth-richs-murder/
4
http://crimemap.dc.gov/

PP followed the homicide investigative process trained and utilized by the New York
Police Department (NYPD) Homicide Investigations training course. The corpus delicti, or body
of the crime that must be established for a homicide are the following:
Prove the victim existed
Prove the victim died
Prove the offenders actions caused the death of the victim
PP followed the same steps and attempted to obtain Seth Richs birth certificate, which PP
was not authorized to request. PP then obtained copies of Central High School (Omaha, NE)
yearbooks for the years 2004-2007 and cross-referenced these yearbooks with social media
accounts for Seth Rich, which supported that Seth Rich existed.
PP then attempted to establish that Seth Rich died. PP sought to obtain a Certificate of
Death, but was not authorized to request. PP sought to obtain autopsy reports or any medical
examiner reports, but requests were denied.
PP was unable to confirm which hospital Seth Rich was taken to on July 10, 2016, but
MPD reported Seth Rich was conscious and breathing and then transported to an area hospital,
where he succumbed to his injuries and was pronounced dead. 5
PP recognized that in homicide cases, there are always multiple crime-scenes. The primary
crime-scene is usually where the body is found and secondary crime-scenes may be where a forced
entry occurred, or an escape route, or where an assault that lead to the homicide took place. The
crime scene starts as soon the offender makes one overt act in moving from intent to action, which
could be well before the actual homicide. Therefore, as technology proliferates more and more
into every aspect of life, computers and cellphones should also be considered a crime scene, or at
least evidence. In homicide investigations, officers should treat everything as evidence and
persevere it.
The Washington D.C. Metropolitan Police Department has 8, district-wide homicide units,
comprised usually of 6 persons (roughly 50 total persons) assigned to it, a Natural Death Squad
and a Special Victims Unit. MPD also has a dedicated Major Case/ Unsolved Homicide Unit 6,
also with roughly 6 detectives assigned to it. 7 In addition to MPD resources, the department can
tap into federal resources based in the Washington D.C. area, including the United States Marshals
Regional Fugitive Task Force and the federal Joint Terrorism Task Force.
MPD has been tasked with solving new homicides at a rate of between almost one new
homicide every day (1997) to every three days (2017). 8 With a finite number of detectives to work
any new homicide, it is easy to see how of 135 homicides in Washington, D.C. in 2016, almost
half (66) went unsolved.
5
https://mpdc.dc.gov/release/homicide-2100-block-flagler-place-northwest
6
https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/investigating-unsolved-murders-dc
7
Information was obtained via personal interviews with current and former MPD homicide detectives
8
https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

Section 2 - Definitions
Cold Case Homicide A homicide case, that after 72 hours, has no specific suspect identified.
Modus Operandi (MO) The various behaviors that are requisite for a particular offender to
successfully accomplish a crime (Hazelwood & Burgess, 2017).
Random The statistical probably of an event or condition occurring is the same for all
participants. If there is a likely chance an event may occur, or it a group may not meet a condition,
the event or condition cannot be defined as random.
Serial Murder The unlawful killing of two or more victims by the same offender(s), in separate
events. (Morton & Hilts, 2008).
Victimology The relationship between the victim and the offender (Fisher & Lab, 2010).

Section 3 - Profile of Seth Rich

PP conducted a thorough review of publicly available material related to Seth Rich. PP

recognized that though, ideally, the most valuable information about who Seth was would be
obtained from those closest to him, it was also recognized that the potential for re-victimization
was high. Therefor PP decided not to officially interview anyone for this section.
DATE OF HOMICIDE: July 10, 2016 at 04:19a
LOCATION OF HOMICIDE: 2100 block of Flagler Place NW
METHOD OF HOMICIDE: Shot and killed
VICTIM: SETH CONRAD RICH, MALE

DATE OF BIRTH: January 3, 1989
PLACE OF BIRTH: Omaha, NE
AGE: 27
Religious Affiliation: Jewish

Religious Practice Location: Beth El Synagogue
Hebrew School: Friedel Jewish Academy, Omaha, NE
Education:
Education Level: College degree
Degree Type: B.A., 2011
Educational History:
Middle School: Beveridge Middle School, Omaha, NE
High School: Central High School, Omaha, NE (2003-2007)
College: Creighton University, Omaha, NE (2007-2011)
College of Arts & Sciences
Major: Political Science & Public Policy & History
Victim Physical Traits: Standing approximately 59 tall, victim was an avid bicyclist, riding to
and from work daily. Victim reported to have been overweight during college, but appeared of
average build at time of death. Victim had brown hair and a trim, but full brown beard.
Victim Marital Status at Time of Death (TOD): Single, in a relationship with [Redacted]
Victim Sexual Orientation: Straight
Victim Military Experience: 1 week training under an Israeli military during war (Summer 2006)
Victim Personal Lifestyle:

Hobbies: Soccer, debates
Organizations:
French Club, Mens Chorus, A Capella (2004-2005)
Academic Decathlon, Student Democrats (2005-2006)
Debate, French Club, A Capella


Frequented Locations: Lous City Bar
Residence: 2113 1ST ST NW Washington, DC 20001

Type of Residence: Row House
Roommates: Three
Prior Residences: Unknown
EMPLOYMENT:
Job Title: Voter Expansion Data Director
Employer: Democratic National Committee, 430 N. Capital St., S.E.,
Washington, DC, 20003
Job Period: June 2014-July 2016
Salary: $1728.19, Bi-Weekly
Previous Job Title: Research Data Previous Job Title: Office Worker, Tour
Associate Specialist
Previous Employer: Greenberg Quinlan Previous Employer: Creighton Admissions
Rosner Previous Job Period: Aug '08 May '10
Previous Job Period: 3/2012-5/2014
Previous Job Title: Legislative Affairs
Previous Job Title: Boating Education Consultant
Director & Staff Programming Director Previous Employer: Kissel E & S
Previous Employer: Camp Rama, WI Associates
Previous Job Period: May '11 Aug '11 Previous Job Period: Jan '10 Mar '10
Previous Job Title: Research Intern Previous Job Title: Field Organizer
Previous Employer: Senator Ben Nelson Previous Employer: Scott Kleeb for
Previous Job Period: Dec '10 May '11 Senate Campaign
Previous Job Period: May '08 Nov '08
Previous Job Title: Campaign Staff
Previous Employer: Nebraska Democratic Previous Job Title: Host & Food Runner
Party Previous Employer: Upstream Brewing
Previous Job Period: Jun '10 Nov '10 Company
Previous Job Period: Sept '07-Feb '08
Previous Job Title: Enumerator
Previous Employer: US Census Bureau Previous Job Title: Assistant Field
Previous Job Period: May '10 Jul '10 Coordinator
Previous Employer: Ben Nelson for
Previous Job Title: Desk Receptionist Senate
Previous Employer: Creighton University Previous Job Period: Sept '07-Dec '07
Residence Life
Previous Job Period: May '09 Jun '10
Victim Medical History: Injuries: Major surgery in 2015 on shoulder and lung after being hit by
a car while riding his bike
Allergies: Lactose intolerant


Victim Criminal Justice System History: Unknown
Victim Personal Diaries (if known and available): Unknown
Victim Drug and Alcohol History:

Drink of choice: Bells Two-Hearted Ale
Victim Social Media Presence:

Facebook: (edited) https://www.facebook.com/seth.rich.77?fref=ufi&rc=p
Twitter: (deleted) @panda4progess
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/sethrich1
Instagram:
Reddit: (edited) MeGrimlock4
FAMILY: Victim Family Background:

Father: Name: Joel
Education:
Place of Birth:
Date of Birth:
Mother: Name: Mary
Education:
Place of Birth:
Date of Birth:
Brother: Name: Aaron

Education:
Place of Birth:
Date of Birth:
Notes: My have Seths laptop(s)
Miscellaneous: In high school, he wore a blue bandana from Israel Holocaust Museum from 2006
summer trip. His father Joel trusted the trips sponsors (even though only 60 miles south of war)
because there is always some conflict going on in Israel, so many people were used to fighting and
threats.
Victim Friends and Enemies: Unknown
Victim Last Known Activities, Including a Timeline of Events: Unknown
Map of Travel Prior to Offence: Unknown

Section 4 - Victimology
This report uses the term victimology to describe the relationship between the victim and
the offender (Fisher & Lab, 2010). The purpose is to look at as much information about the victim
and the victim-offender interaction at the commission of the crime to assist in producing insight
into why the victim was murdered, what relationship may have existed between the victim and
offender and how the victim and the victims lifestyle may have played a part in the murder.
The process of establishing victimology includes conducting direct interviews with family
and friends to the victim. Due to the nature of this case, PP has not interviewed anyone for this
section and only relied on publicly available material and prior research. PP recognizes that this
section is not as robust as it could be and cautions any use or interpretation of this section by others
for anything other than general background.
Former FBI Behavior Analysis Unit (BAU) Supervisory Special Agent James McNamara
notes in his GWU psychological profiling course that all persons have three lives: (i) a public life,
(ii) a private life, (iii) and a secret life. Ones public life is the part of ones life that is shared in
public, including ones on-line presence that is directly attributable to the person (i.e., when
someone posts on-line using their name). Ones private life is not shared as widely as the public
life. Ones private life is not necessarily concealed, but simply is not shared. The private life
includes what someone may have in their medicine cabinet, or the things one does behind closed
doors. It also may include am on-line presence that is less-directly attributable to the actual person
(i.e., using a screen-name or cyber handle). Ones secret life is the part of ones life that is actively
concealed from others. This may include internet searches or aspects of ones life which is actively
concealed from others. The secret life includes an on-line presence of either deception (i.e.,
pretending to be someone else) or anonymity.
PP was only able to delve into Seth Richs public and private life, we were unable to gain
insight into his secret life. PP notes that Seth Richs victimology has amended at the end of May
2017 when further analysis of Seths Reddit and Twitter accounts was conducted. PP viewed
Seths Reddit and Twitter accounts as further insight into Seths private life.
A significant hurdle in this case was establishing the validity of the material we utilized,
including statements made by friends and family. Additionally, much of Seths on-line presence
has been deleted, including his Facebook and Twitter accounts.
Victim Seth Rich was a 27-year-old white male born in Omaha, NE. Seth was an avid
follower of sports and may have bet on games, as his Reddit posts note point-spreads and over/
under metrics. Seth an animal advocate, having several Newfies as pet dogs and volunteers at
the Animal Humane Society 9.
Seths social life appeared to be comprised of many acquaintances with whom Seth drank
or played sports with, but appears to have had few close friends. Seths roommate stated victim
was probably walking home from his girlfriend's apartment when he was robbed and then shot.10
However, Seths girlfriend was reported to have been in Michigan for the weekend. This may
indicate victim did not share much about his personal life with roommate(s) and is indicative of
normal routine for victim to be at girlfriends apartment when not accounted for.
9
https://www.facebook.com/CreightonUniversityAlumni/posts/1374789492536773
10
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/seth-rich-shot-democratic-national-committee-staffer-washington-dc/

VICTIM RISK ASSESSMENT: Caveat A Victim Risk Assessment (VRA) should in no

manner be interpreted in any way as an assessment of blame or responsibility of a victim. A VRA
is a tool in profiling to assist in assessing the statistical probability of a behavioral outcome.
Certain lifestyle factors and behaviors can increase the likelihood of becoming a victim,
such as a criminal lifestyle or drug-use. Proximity is also an important consideration when
assessing victim risk. VRAs are measured in terms of low, moderate and high-risk (Hazelwood
& Burgess, 2009) of potential victimization. PP looked at the totality of information available to
determine the following VRA:
Seth Rich had a low-moderate risk. Seth lived in the gentrified neighborhood of
Bloomingdale. He rode his bicycle as his primary means of transportation, and would ride despite
of weather conditions.
We were unable to ascertain if Seth used drugs, but he did seem to be a heavy drinker. His
Reddit profile indicates that he had in-depth knowledge of sports betting metrics and may have
engaged in sports betting. Reportedly, in his last Facebook posting prior being shot, Seth posted
I have family and friends on both sides of the law 11 which may indicate an understanding of the
criminal system.
Seths residence location, drinking habits and possible betting activities led to an
assessment of a low-moderate risk.
EVALUATION OF THE CRIME: According to MPD Public Incident Report CCN #16113797,
Responding Officer Jody O'Leary (#7859), CIC report[ed] the sound of gunshots at 2134 Flagler
Pl. NW. Upon arriving to the scene, the decedent was laying in the Southwest corner of the
intersection of W St. and Flagler Pl. NW. The decedent was conscious and breathing with apparent
gunshot wound(s) to the back. The decedent was transported to local area hospital and was
pronounced by attending physician at 0557 hours.
In section OFFENSE #1, under the section AGGRAVATED ASSAULT
FACTORS/HOMICIDE FACTORS Unknown Circumstances is reported. Though the report
notes apparent gunshot wound(s) to the back the report states that the homicide was Gun
involved and that the weapon was a handgun.
EVALUATION OF THE CRIME SCENE: Southwest corner of the intersection of Flagler and
W St. NW, at 2134 Flagler Place, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001. A quiet neighborhood known
as Bloomingdale, with narrow streets and a demographics mixed with long-time residents and
those seeking to get ahead of the areas gentrification. With large trees blocking much of the street-
lighting, the area has some dark areas in the nighttime.
There may be one (1) photo of the crime scene in which Seth is still located in the street,
however PP has been unable to verify the authenticity of this photo. It has been reported (cite)
that no bullet casings were found. The crime scene was very organized to the point of being
sanitized. This would indicate careful planning on the part of the offender, control of the entry to
and exit from the crime scene as well as in-depth understanding of law-enforcement investigative
processes.
11
http://www.omaha.com/news/crime/year-old-creighton-grad-dnc-staffer-shot-dead-in-d/article_023644eb-87b4-
5c36-be7b-3edf96d02ebe.html

EVALUATION OF THE POLICE RECORDS: PP did not have access to police records
EVALUATION OF THE MEDICAL EXAMINER'S AND LAB REPORTS: PP did not have
access to ME and Lab reports
OFFENDER CHARACTERISTICS AND TRAITS: With an unknown offender and very

limited crime-scene information, a through profile of the offender is not possible. However, based
on the following assumptions, we find the following:
If the CCTV cameras PP observed on May 4, 2017 around the crime are consistent with
the CCTV cameras on July 10, 2016, the offender could successfully remain unrecorded in
approaching, engaging and withdrawing from the crime-scene.
Offender brought a most likely unregistered firearm to the crime-scene, utilized the firearm
and most likely carried the firearm away from the crime-scene with them post-commission. This
is a bold behavior in D.C., which has some of the strictest gun laws in the country.
The act of killing is one of the most extreme human behaviors. The offender had already
accepted that the use of a firearm was an option, indicating that offender had either previously
killed, or a significant amount of preparation had gone into planning for this kill. Additionally,
offender could elude police from the commission of the crime to present.
That the crime-scene appeared to be almost sanitized (no firearms casings were reported to
be found, no physical evidence was reported) and that there does not appear to be excessive use of
force (as only two shots were reported), the offender does not appear to be psychotic. Offender
did not display excessive emotion at the crime scene, did not appear to act from hate, anger, fear,
gain, jealousy or revenge, all motivations for murder. (Ferguson, White, Cherry, Lorenz, &
Bhimani, 2003)
OFFENDER RISK FACTORS: As stated supra, the act of killing is one of the most extreme
human behaviors. It also carries the most sever punishments, in some cases, capital punishment.
Offender risk is assessed in terms of what risk the Offender took to commit the crime, and what
risk of getting caught the Offender placed themselves in at a specific time and specific location.
The first factor in assessing Offender risk is to look at modus operandi (MO) risk. For the
Offender to complete this crime, they would have had to both appeared natural in the Bloomingdale
neighborhood and gone to significant lengths to ensure a safe escape route, as 4a, though early, is
not outside the scope of a potential dog-walker or post-night clubber returning home. Offender
appears to have displayed moderate-risk in the commission of the crime. Though Offender
approached, shot and escaped while eluding police, it appears Offender did not go to great lengths
to conceal the audio signature of a firearm. 12
If Offender was not aware who Seth was, Offender may have taken risk in targeting a
young, healthy male. It is possible Seth was intoxicated, making him a more-desirable victim, as
Morton & Hilts (2008) note:
An offender selects a victim, regardless of the category, based upon availability,
vulnerability, and desirability. Availability is explained as the lifestyle of the victim
or circumstances in which the victim is involved, that allow the offender access to
the victim. Vulnerability is defined as the degree to which the victim is susceptible
12
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/police-identify-man-fatally-shot-in-
bloomingdale/2016/07/11/4236fd1a-4754-11e6-90a8-fb84201e0645_story html?utm_term=.2d030eb8e198

to attack by the offender. Desirability is described as the appeal of the victim to

the offender. Desirability involves numerous factors based upon the motivation of
the offender and may include factors dealing with the race, gender, ethnic
background, age of the victim, or other specific preferences the offender
determines.
Offender Method Of Approach: There are three basic approaches offenders utilize to approach
their victims, (i) by ruse or con, (ii) by surprise or (iii) by blitz (Hazelwood & Burgess, 2017).
Seth has been described as helpful and kind to everyone. 13 Offender most likely would not
have needed to blitz Seth. Seth was reported to have been on the phone with his girlfriend right
before the approach, and though Seth ended the phone call, girlfriend stated I wasnt alarmed. 14
Offender Method Of Attack: Unknown. At some point, Seth was reportedly shot twice from
behind.
POST OFFENSE VICTIM BEHAVIOR: It appears victim remained in the area where he was
shot. It has been reported that victim was conscious and breathing and then transported to an
area hospital, where he succumbed to his injuries and was pronounced dead. 15 Victim was
reported to have awake, talking to responding officers 16 and unaware he was shot. 17 That Seth was
unaware he was shot may indicate that there was no face-to-face interaction between Seth and
Offender.
POST OFFENSE OFFENDER BEHAVIOR: Offender did not seem to relinquish firearm after
using it. One possibility is that the firearm was registered to the owner, who is also the Offender,
and therefor was not left due to its traceability. Offender does not appear to have interacted with
victim after shooting. Offender escaped crime scene undetected by closing police.
VICTIMOLOGY CONCLUSION: Several non-routine events had to occur exactly as they did
to place Seth Rich at the scene of the crime at the exact time where an interaction with Offender
could occur. We may never know why Seth was targeted for attack, but we do know that so many
non-routine events had to take place prior that the interaction that it was not statistically random.
Seth appears to be a victim of opportunity, as it seems him being at the crime scene on foot at 4a
was not a routine event. Adams & Pizarro (2014) also found that drug selling elevates the risk of
violent offending and victimization, lending to the crime-precipitated theory. We found more
than half of 2016 unsolved DC homicides appear to be crime-precipitated, but no evidence
supports this as a crime-precipitated homicide.
The issue of struggle between Seth and Offender is unknown, however, if there was
physical interaction, Locards exchange principle notes that such an interaction would have Seth
leaving something on the offender, and the offender leaving something on Seth.
13
https://crimewatchdaily.com/2016/09/30/exclusive-murdered-dnc-staffers-family-friends-set-record-straight/
14
Ibid.
15
https://mpdc.dc.gov/release/homicide-2100-block-flagler-place-northwest
16
http://wjla.com/news/local/vigil-held-in-bloomingdale-neighborhood-for-murdered-dnc-employee-seth-rich
17

The crime scene does not appear to have any behavior by the Offender to give insight into
why the shot Seth. If Offender actively managed the crime scene, intentionally leaving no
evidence or insight, Offender may be an experienced, sophisticated criminal with in-depth
knowledge of law-enforcement procedures. Such an Offender would lend to the notion that Seth
was targeted, as the experienced criminal would leave little to chance. With little to no knowledge
of Seths physical capabilities, the impulsive Offender most likely would have selected a more
desirable victim.
That Seth was one of only a handful of non-African decent homicides in D.C.,
consideration was given to the idea that this could have been a race-motivated attack, however, the
crime-scene does not support this theory, as all indications are that this crime was very impersonal
and potentially simply passing by.
Due to the seemingly impersonal nature of the crime scene, consideration was also given a
drive-by shooting. Ballistic information would have to be reviewed to understand how and from
where Seth was shot.
We believe there was only one shooter, with a possible observer. Much weight was given
to the Benjamin Franklin quote three can keep a secret if two of them are dead. That Offender
has eluded law enforcement thus far, it is likely that few know the details around Seths interaction
with Offender.
We do not believe Offender is a robber, nor a robber who killed. Offender had the ability
to kill, and brought with them an instrument to do so. Though we do not know what other items
Seth may have had in his possession, his watch, phone, wallet and necklace were not stolen. Nor
was Seths body reported to have been further accosted or degraded. With such a sanitized crime
scene and no emotional indications, this is not Offenders first kill.
In support of our assertion that the offender has killed before, and is, by the FBI definition,
a serial killer, Adams & Pizarro (2014) note that

Questions Considered for Victimology (not a comprehensive list)
What choices has the offender made about the location?

Offender picked location (middle of the street), time (4:19a) date (Sunday, July 10, 2016).
How did the victim travel to the scene?

Unknown. Victim is believed to have been on foot from the time he left Lous Bar. Victim was reported to have been
on the phone with girlfriend during from Lous Bar to the crime scene.
How did the offender travel to the scene?

Unknown. Reports that a video camera may have captured two individuals walking behind victim moments before
incident.
How did the offender leave the scene?

Unknown.
How well did the victim know the scene?

Victim was reported by neighbors to bike through the neighborhood regularly. It is unknown if victim was familiar
with the scene at the time of the crime.
How well did the offender know the scene?

Unknown. That offender could approach victim, commit crime and escape crime scene without detecting indicates
probable knowledge of the scene.
Is there any significance of the scenes proximity to local features such as housing estates, pubs, clubs or
transport sites?
No. There are several cameras in and around the crime scene.
Is where victim was found same location as primary crime scene?

Probably. According to Public Incident Report CCN #16113797 CIC reports the sound of gunshots at 2134
Flagler Pl. NW. This is also where victim is believed to have been found.
Was the victim lured to the site, forced or ambushed there?

Unknown. Was on the phone with girlfriend who stated she wasnt alarmed with conversation with victim in the
minutes prior to murder. 18
What evidence is there of planning?

Offender was prepared to commit murder, as it appears offender came to the crime scene with a firearm.
Did the offender choose the scene to minimize chances of being disturbed?
Probably not. Crime appears to have happened in the middle of the street.
What, if any, relationship is there between the scene and the victim or offender?
Crime scene was one block away from victims residence.
Does the victims routine account for their presence at the scene?
No. Victims roommate stated victim was probably walking home from his girlfriend's apartment when he was
robbed and then shot. 19 Victims girlfriend was reported to have been in Michigan for the weekend. This may
indicate victim did not share much about his personal life with roommate(s) and is indicative of normal routine for
victim to be at girlfriends apartment when not accounted for.
If not, why was the victim at the scene?
18
19
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/seth-rich-shot-democratic-national-committee-staffer-washington-dc/

Was the victim young, disadvantaged, elderly or vulnerable in any other ways?
Does the victims lifestyle have any relevance to the investigation, for example, drug dealer, prostitute, police
informer?
What habits, hobbies, leisure and work routine did the victim have?
Where did the victim frequent, e.g., public houses, places of worship, betting shops?
What friends, family, work colleagues and other associates does the victim have?
Is the victim divorced or separated? How stable is their domestic situation?
Is there an explanation for the victims presence at the scene?
Is there a link to another person at the scene? Was the victim targeted?
How might their physical appearance have attracted this type of offender, e.g., physical attributes, mode of
dress, usual behavior, sexuality.
What, if any, control of the victim took place and by what means, e.g., physical restraint, fear, trust,
entrapment, ruse?
Did the victims personality in any way influence what happened?
When did the offender first encounter the victim (days/weeks prior to the offence)?
Had the victim complained of previous incidents?
What drew the attention of the offender to the victim?
Relationships with location?
More than one offender? Was the offender acting alone? Did the offender have an accomplice?
Was the incident spontaneous or planned?
If, planned, what was the level of planning required? What did the offender do to avoid detection?
What degree of scene arrangement or rearrangement has taken place?
Has the body been moved, arranged or hidden?
What escape routes has the offender taken?
Were they planned?
What steps has the offender taken to avoid themselves or the victim being recognized?
By what means did the offender travel to scene? Car, public transport, on foot?
How and from what direction did the offender come?
Can a relationship be established between offender, scene and victim?

Physical Material
Is there more than one offender?
What has the offender done?
What has the offender touched?
What has the offender brought to the scene?
What has the offender taken from the scene?
How was the offense committed?
How was entry gained to the premises?
Has the victim been to the scene prior to the incident?
Is the location of the body the primary murder scene or a deposition scene?
Forensic Awareness
What evidence is there to suggest offender was forensically aware?
Has the offender attempted to destroy evidence?
Did the offender wear gloves?
Offender Injuries
Has there been a struggle?
How would the victim have defended themselves?
Was the offender injured?
What physical evidence may have been left by the offender?
Missing Items
What, if anything, has been taken from the scene? (Theft for gain? Trophy items?)
Blood Distribution
What weapon was used?
Degree of force?
Movement at the scene?
Injury to the offender?
Escape routes?
Linking Evidence
What evidence is there to link:
the offender to the scene?
the victim to the scene?
the offender to other scenes?
the offender to other offenders?
the offender to the victim?
Places used to plan the crime;

Places where encounters between the victim and offender took place;
Places where the offender attacked the victim;
Places where the offender detained the victim;
Places where the offender killed the victim;
Vehicles or other forms of conveyance used to transport the victim;
Body deposition site;
Weapons (including live and spent ammunition);
Weapon deposition sites;
Places used to clean or discard material used in or obtained during the offence;
Access and egress routes to and from any scene(s);
Witnesses;
Victims;
Victims home addresses, workplaces and vehicles;
Suspects;
Suspects home addresses, workplaces and vehicles.

Cause of Death which injury was responsible for death? If there are multiple injuries, which
was the fatal injury? Cause of death? Significance of injuries? Degree of force used?
Time of Death this is vital for setting Relevant Time, for enquiry parameters. It may prove
the suspect could have had access to the victim.
Toxicology blood/alcohol may provide time of death. Is there evidence of victim drug abuse?
Was the victim drugged or intoxicated? Stomach contents may give evidence of lifestyle or
sequence of events.
Level of Attack likely to give an indication of the nature of the attack, the degree of force used
and over what period. Was the victim capable of fight or flight? How many attackers were there?
What was the likelihood of the offender being injured? Did the offender intend to kill? Was there
evidence of overkill?
Injury Analysis number and type of injuries. How were the injuries caused? Evidence of
defense wounds? Timing of injuries in relation to time of death? Evidence of gratuitous violence?
Were injuries caused before or after attack? Are injuries consistent with accounts of witnesses? Is
there evidence of bodily contact, e.g., bites and scratches?
Murder Site evidence that the deposition site was not the murder site?
Disguise Cause attempts by the offender to disguise the cause of death.
Sexual Evidence what evidence is there of a sexual element to the offence such as rape, oral
sex, shaving pubic hair, penile penetration, clothing removal and semen deposits?
Weapon Analysis type of weapon used, number of weapons, weapon found at the scene?
Lifestyle cleanliness of the victim, sexuality, drug user, overall state of health of victim,
evidence of recent assaults.
Size and Physique of Victim evidence of being controlled before death? Is it likely that the
victim could have posed a threat after being injured? Is the victim right or left-handed? The
position of defense wounds may assist. Is the assailant right or left-handed?

Section 5 - Questions PP Asked
Question 1 - Is the Seth Rich unsolved homicide of 2016 different from other D.C. unsolved
homicides in 2016? If so, how?
Finding Yes, it is. Seth Rich was a white male, one of only a few non-African decent victims.
Support - From data on all 2016 unsolved homicide MPDC Public Bulletin No. Reward fliers,
we noted the following data:
66 unsolved homicides were reported by MPD in 2016
64 of unsolved homicides in 2016 cause of death shot and killed (96%)
62 victims of unsolved homicides in 2016 were African American (94%)
32 homicides occurred in SE (48%)
18 homicides occurred between 12a-6a (27%)
4 victims of unsolved homicides in 2016 were non-African American (6%)
2 victims of unsolved homicides in 2016 were female (3%)
Further Information Needed to Answer N/A
Comments As one of only a very few non-African decent victims in 2016, Seths homicide was
clearly different than the bulk of 2016 unsolved homicides. Additionally, PP found further
information on 42 of the 66 total unsolved homicides in 2016 and found that over 30 were crime-
precipitated homicides.
Background
Each of the 66 2016 unsolved homicides Public Bulletin No. Reward flyers 20 were downloaded
and coded into respective Data Name Fields (below). The data was analyzed in relation to the
total number of 2016 unsolved homicides (66).
20
https://mpdc.dc.gov/node/1133867

2016 DC unsolved homicide data



Question 2 - What was the Victimology between Seth Rich and Offender?
Finding Inconclusive
Support See Victimology Section
Further Information Needed to Answer See Victimology Section
Comments Most homicides committed in the United States are committed by offenders known
to the victim. Many are the result of crime precipitation, such as a drug-deal gone bad. Further,
the act of murder has been described as a psychological act, not one usually of simply profit. 21
Though it is not possible to know if anything was taken from Seth Rich by his killer, it is
reported that none of his wallet, watch, cell phone nor gold necklace were taken.
Additionally, there have been no reports of any unusual behavior at the crime scene by the
offender, which indicates the killer was not strongly emotionally tied to the act. There have been
no reports of any degradation, no significant behaviors
There also have been no reports of any defensive wounds inflicted on Seth, most likely
meaning there was little, if any direct contact, conflict or interaction between Seth and his killer.
Seth most likely was shot from behind, that such a killing may be a revenge killing,
however PP would have expected to have found additional offender behavior at the crime-scene
to support revenge, such as displaying the body or attempting to degrade the body.
PP notes that the distance at which Seth was shot is also unknown. A crime-scene with
little evidence may also be indicative of a drive-by shooting
21
https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/disturbed/201110/profiling-murderer

Question 3 Are the theories presented possible?

(List theory and cite where from)
If so, why?
If not, what would be needed?
Finding No theory presented is supported by data, prior research or logos.
Support See Theory breakdown infra
Further Information Needed to Answer Specific cause of death (blood loss, hemorrhaging,
poison, misdiagnosis) and ballistic information would allow further rule-outs of theories.
Comments

Theory A Random Robbery Gone Bad
Findings Not Likely
Found At http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/10/slain-dnc-staffers-father-doubts-
wikileaks-link-as-cops-seek-answers.html
http://www.newsweek.com/seth-rich-murder-dnc-hack-julian-assange-hillary-
clinton-donald-trump-492084
Analysis This theory speculates that an unknown robber crossed paths with Seth sometime after
he left Lous City Bar. The theory holds that the offender(s) approached Seth to rob him, but
through some event, the situation escalated into a homicide.
The profile of a robber is significantly different from that of a robber who kills, a killer
who robs, a professional killer or a psychotic killer. Most robbers are not killers. Additionally,
certain items were not taken from Seth (his cellphone, his wallet, his watch and his gold
necklace) 22. As police response times in DC are reported to be over four minutes (120-130
seconds), with a national average of only three minutes (90 seconds) 23, there would certainly seem
to have been ample time for a robber to complete their initial task.
This theory requires that Seth would have escalated a robbery into a murder. Seths father
Joel Rich sheds some light on how Seth most-likely would have behaved when confronted by a
robber when Joel notes Seth would not go outside the system 24 when asked if Seth may have
leaked DNC materials. The system when confronted by a robber, especially an armed robber,
is to concede and give the robber what they want, and certainly not to escalate the situation, as
stated by Zimring & Zuehl (1986):
One thing is clear: if life is dear, resistance to robbery with lethal weapons rarely
makes sense. Unlike rape, the cost to the victim of compliance with the criminal
demand is usually not momentous. In all but the most extraordinary circumstances,
resistance to robbery demands under the threat of deadly weapons is unwise.
Further Information Needed to Answer This Question

Did Seth have anything of value on him other than what was not taken?
Was Seths watch damaged prior to the incident?
Did Seth pay with cash or credit card at Lous City Bar?
What was Seths intoxication level when he left Lous City Bar?
What were the audio interactions Seth may have either had or were overheard by his
girlfriend from 03:36a-04:19a (July 10, 2016)?
How familiar was Seth with his neighborhood are surrounding area?
Was only one firearm used?
Were only two shots fired?
22
http://www.newsweek.com/seth-rich-murder-dnc-hack-julian-assange-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-492084
23
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/dcs-911-center-is-getting-more-calls-but-its-not-always-
getting-them-right/2016/02/03/2410b5d0-c51b-11e5-9693-933a4d31bcc8_story html?utm_term=.1d99cec7c150
24
http://www foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/10/slain-dnc-staffers-father-doubts-wikileaks-link-as-cops-seek-
answers.html

Comments PP used the profile of Seth and compared it to profiles of robbers, robbers who kill,
killers who rob, and various killers. Additionally, PP utilized prior research on how robberies turn
into homicides and found the follow to support our conclusion that Seths death was most likely
not a robbery gone bad PP utilized the research conducted by Cook (1987) in establishing how
robberies escalate into murders.
Some robbery murders are robberies that result in the victim's death because of a mistake,
an escalation of violence induced by victim resistance, or some other factor inherent in the
robbery process In other robbery murders, the killing is a distinct event that occurs in
conjunction with a robbery Homicides classified as "robbery-related" may result from
several different motivational patterns. In some cases, the victim is killed by accident in
response to the victim's resistance or because of a momentary vicious impulse In some
cases, the murder is a planned part of the robbery; in others, the assailant's primary motive is
to kill the victim, and the robbery is a secondary concern. (Cook, 1987)
Further research indicates that robbers go to great lengths to ensure that a robbery does not
escalate into a murder. Wright & Decker (1997) note that many robbers use words to scare a
victim into compliance. As one armed robber reminded us: You have to talk to victims to get
them to cooperate They dont know what to do, whether to lay down, jump over the counter,
dance, or whatever. This information typically is communicated to victims in the form of short,
sharp orders laced with profanity and, often, racial epithets.
This is a robbery, dont make it a murder!
Many robbers who carry firearms do so only to scare the victim into compliance, and often these firearms are not
loaded or functional.
I had one bullet in the gun for myself. I am not out to hurt anyone. Theres a big difference.
My philosophy is to do things with the least amount of trouble as possible. I dont think Id ever shoot
anybody when it comes down to it
Like Ill scare them. Ill make it sound like I was serious. But if somebody said to me when I was robbing a bank,
No, Im not giving you the money, Im not going to take their life for $2,000. No way. I dont expect somebody to
take my life for $2,000. I have morals in that way. I wouldnt kill somebody for the money. Nelson & Desroches
(2014)
Victim selection is a crucial factor in a robbers self-preservation. Citing Best &
Luckenbill (1982), Nelson & Desroches (2014) state [bank] robbers seek to achieve mastery of a
situation by maximizing their control over their victims in every phase, beginning with their most
embryonic imaginings of an offence and continuing through their on-site establishment of co-
presence, development of co-orientation, and strategies for the transfer of valuables and exiting.
Would-be robbers engage in a type of proto-profiling of victims and, when selecting among
potential targets, choose as their preferred targets those who are perceived to be the most
powerless, vulnerable and isolated, and that many of the convicted robbers they interviewed
seemed genuinely surprised when victims resisted forcefully. Nelson & Desroches (2014)
Had Seth been selected for robbery, it would have been because the robber saw him as an
easy mark, one who would not offer much resistance. If the robber had gotten this assessment
wrong, we would expect to see defensive wounds on Seth as well as incriminating evidence from
the offender, as Locards exchange principle notes that such an interaction would have Seth leaving
something on the offender, and the offender leaving something on Seth.
As there does not appear to be a confrontation between the offender and Seth, as Seths
wounds have been reported to have been from the back, that Seth does not appear to be someone
who would escalate a robbery, that a robber would have had upwards of four-minutes post-
shooting to rummage Seths pockets, and that most robbers do not want a robbery to turn into a
murder, PP finds that it is not likely that this is the case of a simple robbery turned into a murder.

Theory Killed for Leaking DNC Documents to Wiki-Leaks
Findings Not Likely, unless a toxin was introduced into Seth
Found At https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/seth-rich-wasnt-just-another-dc-
murder-victim-he-was-a-meme-in-the-weirdest-presidential-election-of-our-
times/2017/01/18/ee8e27f8-dcc0-11e6-918c-
99ede3c8cafa_story.html?utm_term=.8703264bc6ed
Analysis The first hurdle this theory needs to overcome is that a professional killer would have
been the offender. Seth did not die at the scene. A professional killer, whose sole job would have
been to terminate Seth did not accomplish their mission prior to escaping. Positive toxicology
reports would be needed to support this theory.
Further Information Needed to Answer This Question Any forgiven substance in Seths
system could support this theory. Any poison or radiation indications would support the
professional killer theory, as the killer would have known that once the matter entered the
bloodstream it would take effect.
Comments Such toxicology reports are required per the 2016 version of the DC Office of the
Chief Medical Examiner Standard Operating Procedures. Section 10 Ancillary Studies, C
Toxicology25 states the following:
General
1.1. Toxicology specimen MUST BE TAKEN on all case types if possible, even if
no toxicological tests are ordered
1.2. Toxicology specimens include blood, urine, liver, vitreous humor, stomach
contents, brain and bile.
25
https://ocme.dc.gov/page/ocme-employee-manual-and-standard-operating-procedures

Theory Killed by Clinton Directions (Clinton Death List) for Leaking DNC Documents to
Wiki-Leaks
Found At https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/seth-rich-wasnt-just-another-dc-
murder-victim-he-was-a-meme-in-the-weirdest-presidential-election-of-our-
times/2017/01/18/ee8e27f8-dcc0-11e6-918c-
99ede3c8cafa_story.html?utm_term=.8703264bc6ed
General
26

Theory A Hit Team
Introduced by: Whatdoesitmean.com
General
27

Theory The Russians Did It
Found At http://forward.com/fast-forward/364499/was-russia-behind-mystery-murder-of-dnc-
worker-seth-rich/
http://wjla.com/news/local/gop-lobbyist-asks-congress-to-investigate-possible-russian-link-to-
murder-of-dnc-staffer
Analysis
General
28

Question 4 - Are there any theories not yet presented which may be valid?
Finding Possibly Yes
Theory The full-scope of Seths injuries were not recognized initially as life-threatening. As
such, Seth was not urgently transported to a hospital and the crime scene was not given the
attention that a murder crime scene would receive.
Support Seths father stated when emergency responders arrived and were talking with Seth,
post-shooting, Seth did not know he was shot. 29 According to the 2010 the DC Office of the Chief
Medical Examiner (OCME) Death Investigation Standard Operating Procedures 30, OCME shall
be thoroughly investigated to determine jurisdiction, and, for those deaths that fall under the
jurisdiction of OCME, to aid in the certification of the cause and manner of death.
That Seth was alive, awake, and seemingly conscious when medical personnel arrived, no
consideration for OCME would have been given, and a thorough OCME crime scene investigation
would have occurred.
Further Information Needed to Answer Was the initial crime scene treated as a homicide
crime scene?
What protections were given to the crime scene?
What did the first responders do?
Who first noticed Seth had been shot?
What happened once it was determined Seth was shot?
When was the crime scene released and by whom?
Which hospital was Seth transported to?
What happened when Seth arrived at the hospital?
29
30

Section 6 - Neighborhood Canvas Conducted on May 4, 2017
Result PP found a 2nd camera on the Flagler Market which PP believes MPD may have missed.
This camera was orientated at the intersection of W St. NW and Flagler Place, NW. PP observed
the monitor inside Flagler Market and could clearly see this intersection, where other PP members
were standing. PP spoke with many residents in the area during the canvas. One resident gave an
in-depth account of the events on the early morning of July 10, 2016 and her prior interactions
with Seth Rich. PP found several CCTV cameras around the crime which should have recorded
persons entering and/or exiting the W St. NW and Flagler Place, NW.
Private Security Camera System Incentive Program - The Private Security Camera Incentive
Program, administered by the Office of Victim Services and Justice Grants, encourages residents,
businesses, non-profits and religious institutions to install security camera systems on their
property and register them with the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD). This program is
intended to help deter crime and assist law enforcement with investigations. There are two ways
to participate:
The Private Security Camera Rebate Program creates a rebate for residents, businesses,
nonprofits, and religious institutions to purchase and install security camera systems on
their property and register them with the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD). The
program provides a rebate of up to $200 per camera, with a maximum rebate of up to $500
per residential address (e.g., home offices, condo buildings, and apartments) and $750 for
all other eligible addresses. The rebate is exclusively for the cost of the camera(s) including
any applicable tax.
The Private Security Camera Voucher Program provides a private security camera system
to eligible residents free of charge. District residentseither owners or tenantswho
receive public assistance may be eligible to have a camera system installed at their
home. 31
31
https://ovsjg.dc.gov/service/private-security-camera-system-incentive-program

Section 7 - Discussion, Considerations and Additional Research Needed
The goal of PP was to provide one actionable piece of information to MPD to assist in
solving the murder of Seth Rich. We recognized that this was neither a simple murder case, nor a
normal one in the District of Columbia. We further knew that such a case was not going to be
solved quickly, like done on television, nor easily, like the board-game Clue.
We knew that this was a real murder, a family that lost a son, a community that lost a
member, and the implication that a probable serial killer remains on the loose. We know that new
information is still out there in the community. We know that someone, somewhere holds the key
to cracking this unsolved homicide. We further know that solve this case, such information must
be seen not merely as information, but as at least potentially actionable, if not outright actionable
information.
We recognize the burden on an already overly taxed homicide investigative unit, and
implore them to utilize all resources available to solve this and every unsolved homicide in the
District and the greater DMV area. We recognize that MPD needs the communitys assistance,
as MPDs Operation Full Stride flier notes Officers cant be everywhere at once. 32 However,
for MPD and D.C. as a whole to truly rely on the community to assist, it must they must engage
with the same totality of events that they seek to obtain. We recognize that it is crucial to keep
aspects of criminal investigations confidential, for both a defendants constitutional rights and to
maintain case integrity.
However, MPD and D.C. can do a better job in both transparency and accuracy in
disseminating information that the community needs to know. During our investigation, we spoke
with MPD officers. Officers explained that offenders knew what they could get away with, and
often taunted police on the limits (one MPD office noted the no-chase policy and explained ATV
riders often taunt officers who they know cannot pursue). 33
Other officers noted that from the time the officer makes the arrest, the dance with
prosecution begins. An officer who makes a good arrest for robbery may later find out the charge
was changed by their supervisor to simply theft, or they may find that the prosecution declined to
prosecute the case due to an overly burdened docket of more serious crimes.
Often the officer never knows the outcome of their good arrest, unless they run into the
offender who was released far too soon back into the community. Former D.C. Police Chief Cathy
Lanier eluded to the issue in September 2016 34 and D.C. Witness contributor Thamar Bailey
highlights the issue noting of the 312 homicides since 2015, only 35 people have been sentenced
and not all for murder. 35
During our investigation, we came across numerous discrepancies in the data, some due to
input errors, but others unexplainedly skewed. D.C. and MPD must do all it can to ensure that
data and statistics are not malleable, used to support a narrative, but rather let the narrative support
the data. Armed robberies must be recorded as such, not simply theft;
prosecutors must be held publicly accountable to ensure that when a good case is made by an
arresting officer, the case be prosecuted and that any decisions by prosecutors to not try a case or
accept far lower plea deals to simply clear exponentially increasing dockets be addressed.
32
https://mpdc.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/mpdc/publication/attachments/OFS_brochure.pdf
33
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/apr/11/washington-dc-residents-police-fed-up-with-atv-pac/
34
http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/Police-Chief-Lanier-Says-DC-Justice-System-Broken-
392652181.html
35
http://blog.dcwitness.org/majority-d-c-s-homicide-cases-settled-plea-bargain/

Appendix A
The Six Cs of our Office Space
Compassion This is a very sensitive matter, Paramount Consideration DO NOT

REVICTIMIZE and respect everyone involved directly, indirectly and tertiary
Confidentially The office is a safe place, but what happens in the office should stay within the
office
Consideration for the task at hand, the humans involved and the others who work around us
Collect Data, evidence, supporting materials Dont rely on 3rd party reports, Get the
ORIGINAL
Catalog EVERYTHING What you did today, what you do at home, the process you
followed
Consistency Be consistent with what you say and the manner you do it so we can rely on each
other

Appendix B
Statement and Evidence Strength Chart

Appendix C
Assessing Statement Validity
As we read statements, or folks repeating others statements, we need to assess both how
valid the statement is, and how reliable the person stating it is. We do this innately through
our own intuition (our gut feeling), which is sometimes described as the art in investigations.
Our intuition rises a flag, but we must prove that the statement is true or not. If we cannot
prove or disprove a statement, we want to state what would additional information would be
needed to prove or disprove a statement.
Phase I Is the Statement Logically Valid?

Im going to walk you through just one small piece of our case, in looking at the follow
statement allegedly from Seths Mom and Dad, shared via Fox5DC:
there were no shell casings found at the scene indicating their son was likely shot with a revolver
36
The logic used here is INDUCTIVE (there is a fact, so therefor it must be this; going
from small to big) reasoning. We first must ascertain if this is sound logic or if this is a fallacy.
So, we first must look at the reasoning in Socratic logic form: There were no casings, so
therefor it was most-likely a revolver
Conditions that must be true for the statement to be true:
Condition 1 Revolvers never leave casings
Condition 2 Revolvers are the only handgun that does not leave casings
We also must add a third assumption:
Condition 3 The only way a casing will not be present at a crime scene is if a
revolver was used
So now we have the following conditions that must be true for the parents statement to be
true:
Condition 1 Revolvers never leave casings
Condition 2 Revolvers are the only handgun that does not leave casings
Condition 3 The only way a casing will not be present at a crime scene is if a
revolver was used
36
http://www.fox5dc.com/news/218883023-story

Appendix C
Lets look at Condition 1 Revolvers never leave casings

The first thing we need to do is ensure we know what a revolver is, and how it is different
from other handguns. I happen to be a former federal firearms instructor, so I know that the major
difference revolvers have between other firearms is within the respective cycle of operations.
Unlike semi-automatic and automatic handgun, revolvers cycle of operations does not include
ejection of a spent casing. Here is a photo of a revolver handgun. The chamber of a revolver
revolves or rotates, and the casings remain contained in the pistol.
Below is a semi-automatic (semi-auto) handgun. This type of firearm must eject the
casing before it can cycle another, new round into the chamber. We will get to this later, but it is
important to note that a semi-auto chambers a round the round is inserted into the chamber. A
pistol does not chamber the round, so there is a slight gap between where the head of the bullet is
and the chamber.

Appendix C
Condition 1 Revolvers never leave casings TRUE (there are scenarios where a revolver
can have casings at a crime scene, but for the purpose of this paper, we can state Conditions 1 as
TRUE)
This is a photo of a over-under handgun. The rounds are inserted manually into the two
chambers, and are also removed manually. It is possible for this firearm to also not leave casings
at a crime scene, as long as only two shots are fired.

Appendix C
As it is possible that an over-under pistol will not eject casings into a crime scene,
Condition 2 Revolvers are the only handgun that does not leave casings is FALSE.
So we have already DISPROVEN the parents statement, but we will continue to Condition
3 The only way a casing will not be present at a crime scene is if a revolver was used, to explore
another aspect of the statement. As we saw with a semi-auto handgun, the expended casing is
ejected from the handgun. It is very possible that a shooter could either pick up the casing from
the ground after ejection, or the casing could have been ejected into something that left the crime
scene, like the shooters jacket, or on a dog trotting by.
So Condition 3 The only way a casing will not be present at a crime scene is if a revolver
was used, is FALSE.
If the statement was logical and true, we can accept it, but if it isnt, we need to find out
what would make the statement logical and true, so we need to move to Phase II.
Phase II What would make the Statement Valid?

The inductive reasoning by the parents is not logically sound as the conditions for the
statement to be true were not met. We want to figure out if any conditions do or can exist to render
the statement was likely shot with a revolver true. We want to work DEDUCTIVELY to be
likely shot from a revolver, these conditions must be present.
There are certain unique features of the revolver that produce various forms of evidence.

Appendix C
From the bullet itself, we learn: If the cylinder of the revolver is out of alignment with
the barrel, as the bullet jumps from the cylinder to the barrel, fragments of metal may be sheared
off the bullet. These fragments can produce marks (stippling) on the skin that resemble powder
tattoo marks. Such marks, however, are larger, more irregular, and more hemorrhagic than
traditional powder tattoo marks. (DiMaio, 1999)
So our deductive reasoning in profiling the use of a revolver as the handgun would be the
following:
For a revolver to have been used, we would expect to have an
audible gunshot sound, clothing or skin burns showing an V-
shaped soot deposit (if the handgun was close enough), and we
would expect the bullet to bear marks similar to those of
jumping the gap. If these conditions were not present, it is
less-likely that a revolver was used.
We could (and should!) go even further We would want to look at how many times
revolvers were used in other similar crimes in DC, and then this area, and then the whole US
That way, in addition to the above statement, we may be able to add something like:
Additionally, research shows that nationally, revolvers are
used in only 1 of 20 cases (20%), and in DC they are used even
less often (12%). Therefor the probability that a revolver was
used if none of the stated supra were present would be very
low.
And that, my friends, is profiling Now we need to do this with EVERY statement we
can find GAME ON!!
Reference
Di Maio, Vincent J. M. (1999). Gunshot wounds: Practical aspects of firearms, ballistics, and
forensic techniques. Boca Raton: CRC Press.

References
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Canter, D. & Youngs, D. (2009). Investigative Psychology: Offender profiling and the analysis of criminal action.
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theories. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 13(2), 88-106. doi:10.1016/j.avb.2008.01.001
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The Profiling Project Seth Rich Report

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The Profiling Project Seth Rich Report

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The Profiling Project: Seth Rich Homicide - Initial Findings June 20, 2017

The Profiling Project:

To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

1. Seths death does not appear to be a random homicide

This report is broken down into the following sections:

Law Enforcement Sensitive

Sensitive Information Releasable Only With Author Permission

To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

Section 1 - Project Recap

To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

Section 3 - Profile of Seth Rich

PP conducted a thorough review of publicly available material related to Seth Rich. PP

VICTIM: SETH CONRAD RICH, MALE

Religious Affiliation: Jewish

Victim Sexual Orientation: Straight

Victim Personal Lifestyle:

To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

Sensitive Information Releasable Only With Author Permission

Residence: 2113 1ST ST NW Washington, DC 20001

To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

Sensitive Information Releasable Only With Author Permission

Victim Personal Diaries (if known and available): Unknown

Victim Drug and Alcohol History:

Victim Social Media Presence:

FAMILY: Victim Family Background:

Brother: Name: Aaron

Victim Friends and Enemies: Unknown

Victim Last Known Activities, Including a Timeline of Events: Unknown

Map of Travel Prior to Offence: Unknown

To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

VICTIM RISK ASSESSMENT: Caveat A Victim Risk Assessment (VRA) should in no

To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

OFFENDER CHARACTERISTICS AND TRAITS: With an unknown offender and very

To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

to attack by the offender. Desirability is described as the appeal of the victim to

To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

Questions Considered for Victimology (not a comprehensive list)

What choices has the offender made about the location?

How did the victim travel to the scene?

How did the offender travel to the scene?

How did the offender leave the scene?

How well did the victim know the scene?

How well did the offender know the scene?

Is where victim was found same location as primary crime scene?

Was the victim lured to the site, forced or ambushed there?

What evidence is there of planning?

If not, why was the victim at the scene?

To Reach The Profiling Project: ProfilingProjectVA@gmail.com

Is the victim divorced or separated? How stable is their domestic situation?

Is there an explanation for the victims presence at the scene?

Did the victims personality in any way influence what happened?

Had the victim complained of previous incidents?

What drew the attention of the offender to the victim?

Relationships with location?

Was the incident spontaneous or planned?

What degree of scene arrangement or rearrangement has taken place?

Has the body been moved, arranged or hidden?

What escape routes has the offender taken?

Were they planned?

How and from what direction did the offender come?