Wales have to master living off their wits against Ireland’s calculated fury

Joe Schmidt said immediately after Ireland’s victory over England that he going to take some time off and not think about rugby for 24 hours, a resolution unlikely to have survived the approach of evening.

The devil in Schmidt’s Ireland is in the detail. His planning is meticulous and the champions sit on top of the Six Nations table unbeaten after three rounds because his players have, for the most part, made the drawing board the pitch. Contrast that with France, who after four hours this year have provided little clue as to what they are about, strangers rather than team-mates.

Running from deep early on against Wales from their own possession rather than turnovers did not suggest much in the way of planning on France’s part. Had they watched the second half of England’s victory in Cardiff on the opening night they would have seen how to take on a team who base their game on territory. But then again, they were probably on the treadmill in the gym.

What a difference Schmidt would make to France. Ireland always seemed a step ahead of England and although the margin of victory was only 10 points England were some way back in second. The progress they made in Cardiff and against Italy checked by a side who, in true New Zealand fashion, confronted them at their perceived strongest point and left them like a ship without an anchor, all adrift.

There were only eight scrums in the match but England were unable to establish a measure of supremacy, and a key moment came in the first half when England opted to kick a penalty to touch and throw into a lineout five metres from the Irish line. Would Ireland compete on the throw or stand back to take on a driving maul? Dylan Hartley, who had an unblemished record in the set piece last autumn, went long and Devin Toner helped himself.

In contrast Ireland made their strengths tell: three kicks in the opening five minutes saw England fail to secure possession, the confidence they had developed under the high ball in training evaporating. Having been told discipline was key, England kept infringing at the breakdown at a time when bodies and minds were at their most fresh.

Ireland under Schmidt play with a calculated fury. A team who used to start like a hurricane and finish like a gentle summer breeze pace themselves – although they finished the victories over France and England on the back foot – and they have in the last two seasons shown they can not only win the Six Nations but take on the best in the southern hemisphere: Australia and South Africa were beaten last November, a year after New Zealand escaped from the Aviva Stadium with victory from the last move of the match.

Their next stop is Cardiff against another team coached by a New Zealander. Ireland are looking for an unprecedented 11th consecutive Test victory and expectations are rising. An article on the All Blacks’ website this week described the men in green as “the biggest local threat” at the World Cup and lavished praise on the Ireland fly-half Jonathan Sexton, who with his half-back partner Conor Murray play builders to Schmidt’s architect.

Schmidt cannot hope to keep the lid on outside expectation but Ireland cocoon themselves away at their training base, focusing on what lies within. Cardiff has become a second home; only two defeats there in the championship since 1983. Their final game is against Scotland at Murrayfield, where they have won six and lost nine in the last 30 years, although a run of five successive victories there ended in 2013.

It is 10 years since Ireland cut loose in Edinburgh, so victory in Cardiff would not prompt premature celebration from Schmidt and his players, not that they will be thinking about Scotland yet. All that matters now is the game with Wales next week, opponents who have hauled themselves back into title contention with victories in France and Scotland and are motivated by last year’s defeat in Dublin, one of the low points of the Warren Gatland era.

It will be a seminal day for Wales who, until Schmidt took charge of Ireland, had become the most consistent side in the Six Nations, winning the tournament in 2008, 2012 and 2013. Aside of last November’s victory over South Africa, their recent record against the teams in the top five of the world rankings is poor.

They have lost their last two matches to Ireland and England, and the Irish blemish Gatland’s record in the Six Nations, which stands at 27 victories and 11 defeats. It does not compare badly to the glory years of the 1970s when Wales lost seven matches in 39 and won 30. The only team he does not have at least a 50% record against in the championship is Ireland; three successes compared with four defeats.

So it is not just the title that is at stake for Wales. They have become proficient at beating teams they are expected to –which was far from the case before Gatland’s arrival – and last weekend’s victory in France highlighted their organisation and resolve, and work they had done on areas where they had been weak, such as the lineout.

Where Wales have been vulnerable is when they have to live off their wits, such as the second half against England when a game that had appeared to be firmly in their grasp started to slip away. They could not find a response and they were similarly choked in Dublin last year when Ireland neutralised Wales’s strengths, such as the breakdown, by not playing to it.