Syracuse, N.Y. — After experiencing a true residential building boom in recent years, downtown Syracuse is facing a big new question.
How long can the good times last?
According to local experts and a new study, residential growth should continue for several more years at least.
"It hasn't hit that saturation point yet," said Yildiray Yildirim, a finance professor and the Michael Falcone Chair in Real Estate at Syracuse University's Whitman School of Management.
So far, developers have been building steadily, not recklessly, Yildirim said. They need to keep watching demand carefully and make sure their plans don't get ahead of the market, he added.
Downtown's revitalization dates back more than 20 years at this point to the redevelopment of Armory Square in the 1990s.
But the pace has quickened lately, and it's not slowing.
The area's population has grown 47 percent in the last decade and 21 percent in the last three years alone.
More than 500 new residential units have come online since 2012, according to the Downtown Committee of Syracuse. Another 400 units are either planned or under construction.
If the market does start to reach its limit, there would be some warning signs before a crash, according to the Downtown Committee. Those robust waiting lists would start to ease and the occupancy rate would dip.
Developers could adjust. They might start building units with fewer luxury amenities at somewhat lower price points, said Robert Doucette, who has been involved with downtown development for years.
That would open the market to a broader group of potential residents.
Doucette spearheaded Center Armory, one of Armory Square's first major residential redevelopment projects. More recently, he and his partner Richard deVito worked on revitalization of the Dey Brothers building.
They are now resurrecting the former Sibley's Department Store building on South Salina Street.
"I worry about everything," Doucette said. "But I tend to think we're not near any kind of maximum number of apartments."
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