Are you tempted by Windows 10? On paper you should be: it combines the best of Windows 8 with a desktop similar to Windows 7, it works across PCs, phones and tablets and - best of all - it will be free. Actually scrap that last part…
Here is the official line: Windows 10 will be a free upgrade to existing Windows 7, Windows 8.1 and Windows Phone 8.1 devices that upgrade within a year of its release.
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Yes there are some exclusions - notably Windows 7 Enterprise, Windows 8/8.1 Enterprise and Windows RT/RT 8.1 - but for the everyday user this sounds almost too good to be true.
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And the problem is: it just might be. Here’s three reasons why:
Reason #1: Windows By Another Name
Windows 10 may not be out yet, but Microsoft has already confirmed the name of its successor: ‘Windows’.
Yes, Windows 10 will be the last numbered version of the OS and going forward it will simply become a ‘Windows’ subscription service. This upsets those who don’t like the idea of a subscription service, but the biggest concern is this: while Windows 10 will seamlessly upgrade to ‘Windows’ - this is a new beginning. Your OS would evolve into a new product for which you have to pay.
When would this happen? Microsoft hasn’t put a date on it, but two major Windows 10 updates dubbed ‘Redstone’ (a Minecraft reference) have already been flagged for release in mid and late 2016 respectively.
Could this be ‘Windows’? Right now we don’t know, but with two years between Windows Vista (2007) and Windows 7 (2009), three years to Windows 8 (2012) and three years to Windows 10 (2015) you may be getting pushed to a paid subscription ‘Windows’ in 2-3 years.
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Reason #2: Nagware
Of course there is a simple answer to any ‘Windows’ upgrade for Windows 10: don’t upgrade.
After all no matter how many times Microsoft may ask you to install ‘Windows’ when it arrives, that doesn’t mean you have to and you can keep using your free version of Windows 10. Then again this looks like it won’t be a pleasurable experience.
The hint comes from the Microsoft patch ‘KB3035583’. Microsoft officially describes it as: “This update enables additional capabilities for Windows Update notifications when new updates are available to the user”
But the reality is KB3035583 is nagware which creates four folders on Windows 7 and Windows 8 devices designed to push Windows 10 adverts both as the release approaches and after release urging users to upgrade.
How important is this strategy to Microsoft? Clearly very. The company recently upgraded the status of KB3035583 to being an ‘Important’ update for both Windows 7 and Windows 8 which means it will install automatically. There seems no reason why Windows 10 users won’t receive similar treatment when ‘Windows’ becomes available.
As for Reason #3, it may be the most costly of them all…
Reason #3: A Short Life
Cast your mind back one year. Microsoft announced the Windows 8.1 Update 1 upgrade and simultaneously declared that it “becomes the new servicing baseline for Windows 8.1, so next month’s security updates (on May 13th, the next ‘Patch Tuesday’) will be dependent on Windows 8.1 Update.”
In short: upgrade within 30 days to Update 1 because after 30 days Windows 8.1 will no longer receive security updates. It was a four week notice period.
Ultimately Microsoft relented and said the 30 day window would be increased to 120 days, but that still meant a product you were happily using would be insecure within four months so refusing to upgrade to Update 1 was not an option.
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Will Microsoft do this to Windows 10 users when the ‘update’ to Windows comes along? Quite frankly we don’t know. The track record is there, but with Windows 10 due to launch in a few months Microsoft has maintained a stony silence about future pricing and the fine detail regarding future upgrades.
So with support for Windows 7 and Windows 8 only ending in 2020 and 2023 respectively it could be that they actually offer longer life cycles than Windows 10.
The True Cost Of Free
The good news is Microsoft can still surprise us.
Many have reacted to its ongoing silence regarding the future pricing and fine details of Windows 10 as a bad thing - and the three reasons above certainly show this ambiguity could have highly negative consequences for users who upgrade before they are clarified.
Then again Microsoft has spent the last 18 months surprising us. I recently argued that Microsoft is the new Google as I think under Satya Nadella Microsoft is currently the most interesting and disruptive tech company around.
Still the real motto of this story is much simpler and more familiar: nothing in technology is ever really free…
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