N.J. Dems concede no turf in bid for seats

ATLANTIC CITY - Democrats are all but certain to maintain their majority in the New Jersey Assembly when voters head to the polls Tuesday.

But they don't appear to be willing to concede a single seat, judging by the torrent of cash being poured into the race in the Second Legislative District, covering parts of Atlantic County, and in South Jersey's First District.

Democrats and their allied super PAC are on track to spend as much as $4.3 million on TV ads alone in the two districts - nearly 5.5 times that of the Republican candidates.

The Second District candidates are campaigning on competing visions for reviving this embattled resort town, which has been decimated by casino closures, and Atlantic County's economy as a whole. The county's unemployment rate was 8.1 percent in August, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, compared with the state's 5.7 percent.

But much of the campaign has been defined by a nasty fight over the potential expansion of casino gaming to North Jersey, which would require an amendment to the state constitution.

While leaders of both parties in Trenton have expressed interest in expanding gaming, the Democratic candidates, incumbent Vince Mazzeo and Freeholder Colin Bell, and the Republicans, incumbent Chris A. Brown and Freeholder Will Pauls, all say they oppose gaming outside of Atlantic City.

Republican mailers and TV ads paid for by the Democratic super PAC have muddied that seeming unanimity, with each side accusing the other of being secretly beholden to would-be North Jersey casino developers.

Brown and Pauls' signs urge voters to "stop North Jersey casinos."

Washington-based General Majority PAC for its part ran an ad contending that the Republicans were "propped up by North Jersey casino interests."

The PAC had spent nearly $4 million on all races as of Tuesday, according to the state Election Law Enforcement Commission (ELEC). A super PAC aligned with the state's largest teachers' union has donated $3.5 million to General Majority, accounting for the vast majority of its fund-raising.

So-called independent groups accounted for $8.5 million, about 42 percent of the total $20.6 million spent by candidates and outside groups, as of their most recent filings with regulators Oct. 27. That's up from 19 percent in 2013, when elections for Senate and governor also were on the ballot.

Despite the heavy spending, the stakes Tuesday are relatively low.

Democrats hold a 47-32 majority in the Assembly, with one vacancy in Camden County's Fifth District expected to be filled by a Democrat. All 80 seats in the lower chamber are up for election. There is one special election in the Senate for the Fifth District. There are also local contests across the state.

Only a couple of Assembly districts are considered competitive, and even GOP sweeps there wouldn't tip the balance of power. (Democrats control the Senate.)

Moreover, 75 percent of Garden State residents are unaware that elections will be held this week, and just 6 percent correctly say the state Assembly is on the ballot, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton poll.

Analysts are predicting record-low turnout, perhaps as little as 22 percent of registered voters.

Of course, that helps explain some of the spending, which could raise awareness of the election.

Democrats say they're also looking toward 2017. If State Sens. Jim Whelan, of the Second District, or Jeff Van Drew, of the First, were to leave the chamber, Democrats would want incumbents in the Assembly who could be successors.

Whelan, a former mayor of Atlantic City, has considered retiring. Van Drew is seen as a possible challenger to Republican U.S. Rep. Frank LoBiondo.

Garden State Forward, the super PAC aligned with the New Jersey Education Association, says it is supporting candidates who would fully fund the state's pension system for public workers.

Chris Russell, a consultant to the GOP campaigns in the First and Second Districts, said: "There's more afoot to me than just fully funding pensions. All the candidates in the race are committed to fully funding pensions. The difference is the Republicans don't believe we should be increasing taxes."

The First and Second are the only districts represented in the Assembly by one Democrat and one Republican, and surveys show tight races in both.

The First District Assembly contests pit incumbent Democrat Bob Andrzejczak and running mate Bruce Land against incumbent Republican Sam Fiocchi and his running mate, Jim Sauro.

The spending in these perennial battlegrounds is even more pronounced in this off-year election, when the Assembly tops the ballot for the first time since 1999.

One point of contention in the Second District is a package of bills passed by the Legislature that would allow casinos to make payments in lieu of taxes to Atlantic City over 15 years.

Mazzeo and Brown both voted for it, but Brown now says he wants to ensure the revenue is shared with Atlantic County.

"This stabilizes taxes for the entire county," said Bell, Mazzeo's running mate. The Republicans "have not offered an alternative," he said.

General Majority PAC aired an ad driving that point, denouncing Brown and Pauls for opposing the "Atlantic City rescue plan, even though it would save thousands of our jobs."

The Brown-Pauls campaign didn't respond to requests for an interview.

On cable and broadcast TV advertising in the two districts, General Majority has spent or reserved about $2.6 million through Election Day, according to Jamestown Associates, a GOP-media-buying firm that tracks such spending.

The Democratic campaigns are spending as much as $900,000 on TV ads in the First District, according to the campaign, and $800,000 in the Second, according to Jamestown. The two GOP campaigns have spent or reserved a combined $783,000 on broadcast and cable ads, Jamestown said.

General Majority didn't respond to requests for comment.

Thomas McDonough, 38, a bartender at the Pier Playground on the Atlantic City Boardwalk, said he had seen some ads but wasn't paying close attention to the election.

"I'm worried about my job right now," said McDonough, of Ventnor. He said his contract was set to expire, and he wasn't sure whether it would be renewed. "My unemployment isn't going to be much," he said. "I can't survive on it."

aseidman@phillynews.com

856-779-3846 @AndrewSeidman

Polls will be open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. For locations and other voting information, go to elections.nj.gov. On the ballot are all 80 Assembly seats, along with a number of county, municipal, and school board races.

Useful numbers:

Burlington County Superintendent of Elections, 609-265-5111; Board of Elections, 609-265-5062 or 609-265-5161.

Camden County Superintendent of Elections, 856-661-3555; Board of Elections, 856-401-8683.

Gloucester County Superintendent of Elections and Board of Elections, 856-384-4500.

- Inquirer staff

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