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Why the killing of Kim Jong Un’s brother is a terrifying sign

The assassination of Kim Jong Un’s half-brother is another sign that North Korea’s ruthless leader has grown increasingly “desperate” — and the killing could have disastrous, destabilizing consequences, experts told The Post.

Kim Jong Nam — the elder, exiled son of late North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il — was poisoned by two female assassins at a Malaysian airport Monday, and all indications are that Kim Jong Un ordered the killing.

If indeed proven to be true, the assassination was an “especially heinous act” in a society where the legitimacy of the regime is determined by bloodlines, according to Gordon Chang, author of “Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On the World” and noted a North Korea expert.

“It means, I think, that Kim Jong Un is desperate,” Chang told The Post. “I think it can destabilize his regime. It’s a desperate act and he obviously thinks it’s in his advantage, but I don’t think so and it can bring him unintended consequences.”

The assassination was among three recent signs of growing instability in Pyongyang, including the dismissal of its minister of state security earlier this month and last weekend’s ballistic missile test, which prompted a promise by President Donald Trump to deal with North Korea “very strongly,” according to Chang.

Taken together, the weeks of unpredictability from North Korea indicates that Kim Jong Un is “under extreme pressure” and squarely within a “period of extreme volatility” during his reign, Chang said.

“They show me that the regime is unstable and that Kim Jong Un is by no means consolidating control, but rather fighting a desperate situation,” Chang said. “It seems to me that we have got to reassess” the international response to North Korea.

Kim Jong NamReuters

It wouldn’t be the first time Kim Jong Un had tried to kill his half-brother, who was widely considered to be the heir to Kim Jong Il until he was exiled to China following several well-publicized incidents, including being caught with a fake visa at Tokyo Disneyland in 2001.

The director of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, Lee Byung-ho, told South Korean lawmakers during a closed session Wednesday that agents had tried to carry out the assassination order on behalf of Kim Jong Un at least once before, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Indeed, no relative or high-ranking military official should feel safe under Jong Un’s rule following the 2013 execution of his uncle, Jang Song Thaek, who served as the country’s second-in-command.

Lisa Collins, a fellow with the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, stressed that it had not been confirmed that Jong Un directly ordered the killing of his half-brother, but acknowledged that, if true, it could signal more coming challenges from the North Korean elite to his power.

A view of the test-firing of a Pukguksong-2 by North Korea.Reuters

“If this assassination was actually ordered, you could see it as a pattern of purges over the course of five years throughout his leadership,” Collins told The Post. “And he has been increasingly purging more leaders from the North Korean ranks.”

The number of senior party and military officials executed by Kim Jong Un since taking power in 2011 could be as high as 300, Collins said, citing leaked estimates from North Korea. Other estimates put the figure closer to 140, according to the Institute for National Security Strategy, a think tank affiliated with South Korea’s National Intelligence Service.

“So we don’t actually know the real number,” Collins said. “But I have seen both numbers and the important point is there have been more than 100 purges of elites since Kim Jong Un has come into power and it looks like he’s been purging more as time passes.”

Whether that shows a growing weakness or fading strength from Kim Jong Un is up for debate, Collins said. If Kim Jong Un did indeed order the killing, it may have been a signal of his enduring power — one that won’t be threatened, even by relatives — or a veiled threat to country elites who might be considering defecting to other countries that it’s time to go.

“Because of the nature of the North Korean system, any family member is potentially a threat,” Collins told The Post.