Hurricane Matthew merits SW Florida's attention this weekend, forecasters say

A sharp northward turn could spare South Florida the brunt of Hurricane Matthew, which swirled into a major Category 4 storm Friday.

Hurricane forecasters, though, said computer models disagree about when Matthew will make the turn.

The farther west the storm gets before heading north, the closer it could get to Southwest Florida.

National Hurricane Center forecast tracks can be off, on average, 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5, according to the NHC's 5 p.m. forecast.

"Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida," the forecast statement said.

As of the 5 p.m. statement, Matthew, with winds of 140 mph, was about 465 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and was moving west-southwestward at 9 mph.

The storm's forecast track map showed Matthew turning north by Sunday morning, nearing Jamaica by Monday afternoon, north of Cuba by Tuesday afternoon and then off South Florida's east coast Wednesday.

Collier County emergency management coordinator Dan Summers said Southwest Florida should watch the storm's progress closely this weekend, especially for the timing of that northward turn.

"The phrase that was coined this morning was 'hyper-vigilance,'" Summers said. "We have a great deal of confidence in those models, but at the end of the day, Mother Nature wins."

Matthew already has surprised forecasters. They reported in the 5 p.m. statement that Matthew had strengthened "at a remarkable rate" and that further strengthening is possible in the next 12 hours.

Interaction with Cuba could weaken the storm, but "Matthew is expected to remain a strong hurricane," forecasters said.

As for the official track, forecasters earlier Friday cited a "large amount of spread" in the guidance, with some models predicting a slower turn north and others predicting a quicker turn north.

ABC-7 meteorologist David Heckard said the intensity forecast is more up for grabs than the forecast track.

"We're pretty confident of the track at this point, that it will stay east of Southwest Florida," Heckard said.

Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters reported in his blog Friday that one forecasting model suggests the trough of low pressure expected to pull Matthew north will weaken next week, high pressure will build in and force Matthew on a more northwesterly course through the Bahamas and toward South Florida.

"NHC has put the 5-day cone of uncertainty for Matthew very close to Miami, and it appears likely at this point that South Florida will experience at least the fringes of Matthew, with some heavy rains, if not a direct hit," Masters wrote in his blog.

Matthew strengthens to major hurricane in Caribbean, still a U.S. threat