Expect Immigration Reform to Be Next

Matt A. Barreto is a professor of political science and Chicano studies at the University of California, Los Angeles and co-founder of the research and polling firm Latino Decisions. He is the co-author of "Change They Can't Believe In: The Tea Party and Reactionary Politics in America."

Updated June 29, 2015, 7:13 AM

Public opinion and the recent Supreme Court decision on same-sex marriage suggest an evolving progressive view in America. A renewed debate over wages and inequality point to majority support for closing the chief-executive-to-average-employee pay gap.

Even Obamacare, which remains polarized by partisanship, is seeing a progressive shift, not only with the Supreme Court upholding the subsidies, but also 70 percent of Americans agreeing that the government should be allowed to provide financial assistance to low income Americans to buy health insurance. And while Republican governors have sued to block President Obama’s recent executive action on immigration, 76 percent of all Americans agree with Obama that undocumented immigrants who are parents of U.S. born children should be allowed to stay in the U.S. without fear of deportation.

This progressive trend in U.S. politics is often obscured by partisan fighting and dysfunction in Congress. But this Tea Party caucus in the House is increasingly out of sync with public opinion.

This progressive trend in American politics, however, is often obscured by partisan fighting and dysfunction in the Congress, particularly in the House. As my research on the Tea Party with Professor Christopher Parker shows, a small but vocal and committed caucus in the House remains opposed to any progressive agenda and to anything that resembles compromise with President Obama. Often representing very conservative districts with little-to-no opposition, this Tea Party caucus in the House is out of sync with public opinion nationwide and with recent landmark court decisions.

In 2013 when Congress was debating comprehensive immigration reform, 78 percent of Americans in a Fox News poll said they were in favor of undocumented immigrants staying in the country and even qualifying for U.S. citizenship if they met certain requirements, paid back taxes and passed background checks. The Senate passed a bipartisan immigration reform bill by a 68-32 margin. However the bill never came up for a vote in the House. In 2014 as the House considered immigration reform, a Fox News poll reported that 60 percent of Republicans, 75 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of independents favored immigration reform that included a pathway to citizenship. So while there was robust support for immigration reform, and the Senate had passed a bipartisan bill, the intransigence House blocked a progressive policy.

Just as with same-sex marriage and Obamacare, the issue of immigration is before the federal courts, and if past decisions are any indication, it is very likely that 12 months from now the Supreme Court will continue to validate the progressive movement by affirming Obama’s immigration orders as constitutional and in line with U.S. public opinion.