How Turkey’s Promise to Stop the Flow of Refugees Is Creating a New Crisis

More than one million people have passed through Turkey en route to Europe since the beginning of last year. Most were coming from war-torn countries, and about half were Syrians. Under a new agreement, Europe is sending refugees back to Turkey if they enter Greece illegally. In exchange, the European Union offered Turkey 6 billion euros (about $6.8 billion) to help with the crisis.

Now Turkey is scrambling to create long-term solutions for millions of people it had expected to house temporarily. Last week, the cease-fire in place in Syria since late February started to give clear signs of crumbling. Renewed fighting in Idlib and Aleppo Provinces has displaced tens of thousands in areas near the Turkish border.

An analysis released by several think tanks and aid groups in February listed hurdles for refugees: bureaucracy, unemployment, poor housing conditions and limited access to education.

As an example of the bureaucracy, the report noted, “a bank account was required to obtain a residence permit, while a residence permit was required to open a bank account.”

“Many people decided to leave for Europe in search of a better life, because life in Turkey is unbearable,” said Metin Corabatır, the president of the Asylum and Migration Research Center, based in Ankara.

“When people flee from war, they usually do so hoping to return home soon,” said Selin Unal, a spokeswoman for the United Nations refugee program in Turkey. “They move nearby, like just across the border, where they can keep an eye on their homes and livelihoods.”

About 270,000 Syrians live in camps run by the Turkish government. They have access to health care and basic needs, but most cannot work and need a permit to leave the camps.

In the last major round of fighting near the border — the Syrian government’s Russian-backed assault on insurgents in northern Aleppo Province in February — Turkey took a new, drastic step, effectively closing the frontier.

Tens of thousands of people were trapped on the Syrian side, crammed into already crowded camps. And that refugee flow was just a small fraction of what could come in the event of an all-out battle for the divided city of Aleppo, where well over a million people still live, a prospect that seems more likely by the day.

Most Syrian refugees in Turkey are living along the southeastern border with Syria. But more than one million people are spread throughout the country, in cities and in rural areas. Istanbul alone has nearly 400,000 registered Syrians, according to the Turkish government.

Syrian refugees are under temporary protection status. They have access to health and education through a provisional identity card. But they do not have internationally recognized refugee status or a path to citizenship.

In January, the Turkish government announced that it would start issuing work permits for people under the protection status, an important step to ensure the viability of the deal with the European Union. Many refugees are learning the language and opening businesses in the country.

Of the 700,000 school-age Syrian children in Turkey, fewer than half are enrolled. The Turkish government is developing a plan to try to close the gap, including creating schools that will employ Syrian teachers and teach in Arabic.

“After living day to day for five years, many migrants and refugees want to plan for the future, and this means being able to provide for their families themselves,” said Abby Dwommoh, a spokeswoman for the International Organization for Migration in Turkey.