More asylum seekers have now reached Italy by boat in 2016 than in any previous year on record.
Nearly 171,000 people have arrived in Italy from north Africa since the start of the year, according to statistics compiled by the UN refugee agency and the Italian government. As of Monday, the total had surpassed the previous record of 170,000, set in 2014.
Migration flows in the eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Greece have been drastically reduced after improvements in Turkish policing, increased threats of deportation from Greece, and the closure of a humanitarian corridor between Greece and Germany.
But Europe’s deterrent strategy has failed to cut migration in the central Mediterranean between Libya and Italy, with the Italian route once again becoming the main migrant gateway into Europe.
European navies, including Britain’s, have focused on a military-style response, sending frigates to arrest smugglers in international waters.
Libyan smugglers have responded by sending passengers on board inflatable dinghies that are piloted by migrants themselves, reducing smugglers’ exposure to arrest and allowing their business to continue as normal.
The Libyan civil war has weakened the country’s law enforcement agencies, some of whom are complicit in the smuggling, leaving European governments without viable Libyan partners in their fight against migration.
The chaos there also gives migrants more incentive to leave for Europe; in previous years they could more easily find work and stability in Libya.
Pressure on transit countries in the Sahara desert, through which many African migrants pass before reaching Libya, has had no effect. Flows through Niger, the country to Libya’s south, increased in 2016, despite Niger introducing new anti-smuggling laws at the request of the EU.
Displacement in north-east Nigeria, where 1.4 million people have been forced to flee Boko Haram, may contribute to sustained levels of migration towards Europe in the future.
The numbers coming to Europe are nevertheless insignificant compared with flows within Africa itself. Just 3.3% of the world’s displaced Africans have reached Europe. More than 93% remain within their home continent.
The majority of migrants bound for Italy are fleeing poverty, wars and dictatorships in Nigeria, Eritrea, Sudan and the Gambia. Syrians no longer use the Libyan route.
The breakdown of law and order has significantly worsened living conditions for foreign workers in Libya since 2011. Many report conditions tantamount to slave labour, while hundreds have been kidnapped for ransom, and sometimes tortured.
A recent survey of new arrivals in Italy by the International Organisation for Migration found that 70% of respondents had been exploited to some degree during their journey to Europe.
Other recent IOM research shows that the majority had not intended to travel to Europe when leaving home, but had been forced to change their destinations due to extenuating circumstances such as the Libyan civil war.