Region's job growth unparalleled in Florida

The Manatee-Sarasota region is the only metro area in Florida with faster employment growth in 2016 than in 2015.

"Every other community did not achieve that," said economist Henry "Hank" Fishkind, noting the addition of 9,600 jobs here in November over the previous year.

Fishkind, for the 18th straight year presenting an economic forecast Thursday to the Bradenton Area Economic Development Corp., said Manatee's development efforts, public/private partnerships, and the recent approvals of higher state sales taxes to support schools and infrastructure improvements are reasons why the county is outpacing others in Florida.

"It doesn't happen in most places in the state," he said of the sales tax initiatives.

As the nation prepares for what President-elect Donald Trump will mean for the economy, he said the momentum is strong to continue recent growth.

"People are really optimistic," Fishkind told the 400 people at the EDC breakfast at Manatee Technical College. "They either love the fact that we have a Republican administration and president, or they love the fact that the election is over. But whatever their reason, people are really more optimistic."

But across the country, many people who want to work either can't find jobs or the right type of employment.

"Twenty million men of working age are not working, the largest number since the Great Depression," Fishkind said. "They're not working because they don't have jobs that are commensurate with what they want to do, or don't have the opportunity to do it."

Technological advances are eliminating many current jobs. He said the Coors Beer company is testing driverless trucks that will travel from the brewery to the warehouse.

"That technology is coming fast," he said. "Where are a million truck drivers going to find a job?"

Wages also remain stagnant for lower- and upper-middle income workers, with most of the inflation-factored pay gains going to those in the upper-income ranges, he said.

"Middle-income and lower-income people have not had an increase in their real income in 40 years," he said. "No wonder people are mad."

The strength of the dollar has impacted real estate investing in Florida and the U.S., as foreign buyers have to pay more than before for homes.

"All of the real estate in Manatee County, if you are from Mexico, has gone up 46 percent in price," Fishkind said.

But the local housing markets have rebounded from the "valley of death,"' with Manatee-Sarasota home sales in November about 9 percent ahead of last year, he said. For the year, though, home sales are down from 2015's record pace, according to the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee.

Population growth is a key factor in keeping the economy humming, he said, which is why he calls Trump's Mexican wall plan "nonsense."

"If we don't have immigration, we can't grow the economy because there is not enough people that will be working," he said.

Fishkind has more than 30 years of experience in economic analysis and forecasting. He is a principal of Fishkind & Associates Inc., an economic and financial consulting firm in Orlando with experience in economic and fiscal impact analysis, policy studies, forecasting and finance in Florida and the U.S.

He urged the Bradenton EDC members to continue to utilize their competitive advantages, building on Port Manatee and the county's sports and entertainment programs.

"Competition is really strong," he said. "Everybody wants to get a piece of what you're trying to get."