In 200 days’ time England will have launched their 2015 Rugby World Cup campaign. Before the curtain goes up they have two more competitive games, plus three pre-tournament friendlies, in which to restore their audience’s shaken faith. Sunday’s comprehensive defeat by Ireland, let’s face it, made Madonna’s tumble off the stage at the Brit Awards last week look relatively elegant.
Because even if they go on to win the Six Nations on points difference – the show must go on and all that – the recurring truth about this England side has again been exposed. It is not that they have insufficient players of the requisite class. It is not that they lack the necessary work ethic. No, the problem is a trickier one to resolve. Test rugby, ultimately, is about doing the right thing at the right time and England’s composure under pressure has re-emerged as their achilles heel.
On Sunday night, in the bowels of the Aviva Stadium, some of England’s backroom staff could again be heard muttering about the two callow 21-year-olds on their wings and a lack of collective experience compared to Paul O’Connell and co. Hang on a minute. Robbie Henshaw is 21 too, and he looked happy enough. Ben Youngs has more Test experience than Conor Murray, James Haskell is almost five years older than Peter O’Mahony, Luther Burrell is more seasoned than Henshaw. Little good it did them.
Which is why the manner of the loss against Ireland – not just the result – will frustrate and concern the management. There is no disgrace in losing to a good side on a tricky occasion which will bear scant relation to the match-day atmosphere at Twickenham this autumn. The snag is that the Irish did not merely win the collisions and the aerial battle. They were more mentally agile, too. When England needed to be error-free, disciplined and play in the right half of the field, they could not manage it. The rest of the world will now conclude that if England are denied a set-piece platform and their half-backs are hassled, the game is all but won.
All is not lost, clearly. Compared to France, for example, the garden remains rosy. The title, if Wales can beat Ireland in Cardiff on Saturday week, could still be claimed on points difference. In that event two decent home wins for England – whose points difference is currently +25 compared to Ireland’s +40 – over Scotland and France might even suffice. Billy Vunipola, for one, believes, finishing top is “definitely” still attainable. “We just have to turn up and try to impose whatever gameplan the coaches have for us better than we did against Ireland. The last two games are must-win and we will see what happens from there.”
Vunipola conceded that the debrief would not be easy and agreed the visitors had “let ourselves down more than anything”. He also singled out the superior nous of the home decision-makers. “When they got the ball they controlled it really well, manipulated us and put us in areas where they could put us under pressure. We have got to go back to the drawing board, try to win these remaining games and hope they slip up.”
As battle cries go, it will have to do. The war will not be settled until the autumn. But the southern hemisphere’s big guns are lurking and the optimism generated at the Millennium Stadium last month is in danger of leaking away. When England badly needed to nail two key first-half lineouts deep in the Irish half they could not do so. When the hosts closed down Jonathan Joseph where was their alternative catalyst? And what is the point of not using a potential match-turner like Danny Cipriani from the bench even after they went 16 points behind?
No one is claiming Cipriani would have altered the result but here was an obvious opportunity to check out his remodelled temperament under fire, with George Ford buffeted and bruised.
Which leads us to selection for Scotland on Saturday week. Stuart Lancaster will be tempted to recall the fit-again Courtney Lawes and might even contemplate a front-row switch or two. Given Scotland’s midfield strength, Brad Barritt is another possibility and Mike Brown should be available. Scrum-half remains an area of debate, as is the balance of the back three in Brown’s absence. Is it really too late to look at Exeter’s talented Henry Slade?
Once again, Lancaster’s in-tray is stacking up. What if the Wales result was a blip, not the Irish one? The head coach can only hope not. It is also worth remembering that Ireland won last season’s title after succumbing to England at Twickenham and Wales won it the previous year having lost to the Irish. Six Nations grand slams are becoming scarcer for everyone, not just the men in white.
THE BIG LEAGUE
The notion of expanding the Aviva Premiership and doing away with automatic promotion and relegation is not a new one. It has been debated on and off for years, with the US sporting model frequently mooted, and is now being discussed again. Ring-fencing the league would allow more financial certainty and, in theory, allow coaches in the bottom half of the table more scope to pick younger players and play less risk-averse rugby.
How many clubs, practicably, can now aspire to top-level professionalism?
How unfair has been the deeply-flawed promotion play-off system from the Greene King Championship which has forced clubs like London Welsh to scrabble around for players in June and made strategic planning almost impossible?
Then again, how does a 14-team league (incorporating Worcester, Bristol and Yorkshire Carnegie) square with the widespread desire for players to be involved in fewer matches? What about the financial health of clubs potentially outside the golden circle: London Welsh, Bedford, Cornish Pirates, Rotherham, Doncaster, London Scottish, Nottingham, Plymouth Albion, Coventry, Moseley? Where are the next Exeter supposed to come from?
All these questions need to be satisfactorily addressed and fed into a wider debate about the future shape of the English club game. If a Premiership youngster needs proper game-time outside academy fixtures, for example, what sense does it make to downgrade the level of rugby he might find at, say, Bedford or the Pirates? The elite clubs and the Rugby Football Union should be very careful what they wish for.
ONE TO WATCH...
Talk of restructuring the Premiership also ignores the fact the current competition has never been tighter. Five of the top six sides are separated by just one point with six regular season games to go, with two destined not to make the play-offs. Bath and Leicester, for example, are both currently outside the top four, which makes Bath’s home game against Sale on Friday and the Tigers’ trip to Newcastle on Sunday all the more intriguing.