A storm brewing in the Gulf of Mexico is projected to strengthen into a tropical cyclone this week and hit Central Florida, bringing rain as early as Sunday, forecasters say.
The storm is expected to travel directly through the region early Monday and bring 25 to 30 mph winds, several inches of rain and possible tornadoes, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.
“Those three things will be the biggest threats,” said Fred Johnson, a meteorologist with the weather service. “Flooding might also be likely. Right now, we’re projecting anywhere from three to six inches of rain.”
The system developed as it moved along the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico Saturday.
It is expected to become better organized and turn into a tropical depression as it moves farther into the Gulf of Mexico early Sunday, he said.
Rain is likely in Central Florida by the afternoon.
If favorable conditions continue, there’s a 70 percent chance the system will turn into Tropical Storm Colin by Monday.
Heavy rains, tornadoes and strong winds could pummel the entire Florida peninsula, Johnson said.
The eastern portion of Central Florida will likely see the harshest effects. That includes parts of Orange, Seminole and Osceola counties and most of Flagler, Volusia and Brevard.
Gov. Rick Scott released a statement Saturday urging residents, visitors and businesses to prepare for the storm and stock up on supplies.
“Our most important goal is to protect our families, visitors and communities, and we will take every action to make sure our state is prepared for this weather event…” he wrote. ” It is crucial that Floridians use every resource to make sure their homes and families are immediately and thoroughly prepared.”
Wednesday was the start of the 2016 hurricane season. However, there was a rare January Atlantic hurricane this year that made landfall in the Azores islands as Tropical Storm Alex.
Another tropical storm, Bonnie — at one point a tropical depression — formed at the end of May near the Bahamas and brought heavy rain to the Carolinas before moving into the ocean.
“This is a pretty typical storm for the start of the season,” Johnson said. “Usually a few smaller storms will start in the Gulf. Then toward the end of the season, we’ll see a few more.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts what it describes as a near-normal season, with four to eight hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. Experts say up to four of those could be major hurricanes, defined as a Category 3 or stronger.
It’s been more than a decade since Florida has had a major hurricane that brought severe devastation. In 2004, Florida was hit with four strong hurricanes back-to-back. Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne struck within a six-week span, leaving more than $45 billion in damage.
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